Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[The Dingo]

I am reading this all now with great laughter.

Lets make a market on the ROI this guy makes

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are crazy if you think a live 1k event is harder than a $100 dollar buyin online.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now how did you come up with this brainstorm?

[Rekwob]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are crazy if you think a live 1k event is harder than a $100 dollar buyin online.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[THAY3R]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are crazy if you think a live 1k event is harder than a $100 dollar buyin online.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now how did you come up with this brainstorm?

[/ QUOTE ]


You really have 0 respect for online players don't you?

[stephenNUTS]

Enough!

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

1) No one knows who i am or how i play
2) I know how the good players play and how to abuse them
...

[/ QUOTE ]

Homer Simpson: You're Darryl Strawberry!
Darryl Strawberry: Yes.
Homer Simpson: You play right field.
Darryl Strawberry: Yes.
Homer Simpson: I play right field too.
Darryl Strawberry: So?
Homer Simpson: Well, are you better than me?
Darryl Strawberry: Well, I've never met you, but... yes.

[New2This]

Thanks for all the input, here are my conclusions based upon your help and some assumptions about possible ITM%:

ITM 15%: P(cashing once or twice of seven attempts)=61%
(7% chance to cash more than twice)
{Risk of Ruin = 32%}

ITM 20%: P(cashing once or twice of seven attempts)=65%
(14% chance to cash more than twice)
{Risk of Ruin = 21%}

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on, live and online, 2 different animals and close to zero correlation but I did LOVE the guru Demichelle (who proclaims himself as a great online player) call with 88 vs the all in of Alex Jac in USPC..............ROR over 7 events for you is like 25-30%

[/ QUOTE ]


Mike,
Now,its your turn to get beat up,as this forum has made me tired of late...lol

[pokervintage]

Greg,

Hi, see you in a few weeks at the WSOP. I am a buddy of yours but cannot provide my real name here else...

I believe that you miss the importance of this thread. Most players that do not understand the difficulties associated with cashing in a large MTT event should pay particular attention to some of the great responses in this thread. The op should be thanked for starting this thread by even some supposedly pro players that read it, even if he does come off a bit arrogant.

This thread should be turned into an article for the internet Magazine concerning the likihood of cashing in a WSOP event.

Hope you and the girls enjoy the Vegas house we found.

pokervintage