$3,30 MTT difficult decision

[ItalianFX]

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You're getting about 2.6:1 odds. I think your only outs are 9 clubs and 3 non-club Kings. I think you're way behind at this point.


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Why don't we like the three non club 8s? The likely holdings are 2 pair, a set, or maybe TPTK.

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You're right, I missed the 8's. I was tired and not thinking straight.

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i c what u did there

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I wasn't thinking "straight?" haha I didn't even realize I did that.

[Oatmeal]

I really thought I was missing something.

[luckychewy]

on this type of flop i don't like a lead really. too likely someone hit something and stacks aren't deep enough to bet/fold turn comfortably. once u do bet it and get called in 1 spot i think the turn bet is okay but would probably bet bigger to commit myself. note: i don't like the flop or turn bets in isolation but combined i think they are okay. as it is you aren't priced in and have no fe, simple math question, easy fold.

[TroutMaskReplica]

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I think crai on this turn is so sexy, it hurts...

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i dunno, i think shoving the turn is better than crai. crai screams draw

[Cornell Fiji]

I don't defend this pf vs. an UTG raise and a MP call.

Flop bet is fine, you will take this down enough to make it +ev in a nutshell, not even counting the times that you are called and hit.

Turn I crai pretty much always, you don't mind the turn going check-check but you love to be making the last move with all of your outs. I also think that you are going to always get a fold from AQ (and often from) because AJ/AT are a significant portion of your pf call range.

As played its a simple math problem, you probably have a little less than 30% equity against his range (edit: to calculate your odds against his range either download pokerstove at www.pokerstove.com and plug in his range vs your hand or go to twodimes.net/poker and plug in one sample hand for him and see how you fare against taht hand. I can't imagine a scenario where you are 60/40 as you indicated in your OP... do you really think he is making that raise with J9o?) just figure out what your expected equity is and see if you have the pot odds. cEV approximates $ev in this spot as you are not at the final table so moving up in the cash is not that big of a concern to you.

note: I thought that the title said the buy in was $3,300 and not $3.30. At low stakes you probably will always get a call on a turn crai from AK/AQ but small aces might (i really have no idea how these play) bet the turn if you check and then they will fold to your crai. I also don't think that those small aces are folding the turn if you lead so you might as well save your chips unless you are planning on 3-barreling a missed river (almost definitely a spew at these stakes)

[All_In_Olly]

Cornell can you please explain why betting on this flop is +ev?
Its against 2 opponents and there are 2 scare cards so I would have thought betting with a non nuts flush draw is -ev.

I understand that you're only betting 2/3s of the pot and even if you get callers you can still hit a flush, but it still doesn't seem good, you are behind so many hands.

Would also think that you get floated here by players who missed the flop but believe you missed also.

Am I just being too weak-tight in my view?

[ThePershore]

I don't like the bet out on the flop or the turn, Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the flop yes, but not Q9...

[coatsie]

im crap at these calculations so let me know if i slip up:

the pot is 49450 and you need to call about 19000 so odds are 2.6-1, so need to win 1 in 3.6 times so 27% of the time?

If you have 15 outs you are roughly 30% to win using the times outs by 2 rough rule, not sure the exact. The 8's may not count as an out because he could have KQ. I would fold in this spot because you'll still have an average-ish stack, but depends how you think your chances are with a big stack. If you think you have a good chance to win with a big stack then why not gamble?