Bubble Thinking

[xPeru]

Situation: $11R sat to Sunday Million; 18 tickets, 22 left. 5 minute levels, blinds will go up to BB6000 by next orbit. I calculate that I have to make a move before the blinds hit me again or I will bubble this one. Only 20 hands at this table, I've stolen the blinds once and showed QQ.

Hand 1. I consider shoving this, but I will get called if any of the other shorties have any pair A8s+, ATo+, KQs etc (ish). Next hand BIG STACK is BB. Table has seen him call shorty shoves w Q2o, but, he folded to the last shorty shove when he was on the button. I think he has stopped playing and is going to sit and wait for his ticket. I decide to fold hand 1 and shove the next hand when BIG STACK is BB. I don't believe that any of the players before me will want to shove into his blind, and if I do, I am sure the shorties after me will fold,expecting him to call, so I'm betting that he will fold unless he has a premium hand (Axs, Kxs or a pair or broadway sc). I think that my thinking here gives me the best probability of stealing the blinds and definitely getting the ticket, but .... am I wrong, should I have shoved hand 1? Or should I have waited to blind out/get a better spot? Did I overthink this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t8580)
SB (t13998)
BB (t9549)
UTG (t33066)
UTG+1 (t4655)
MP1 (t33750)
Hero (t12375)
CO (t10765)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t10765</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t12165

Hand 2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t8380)
Button (t11798)
SB (t5349)
BB (t32866)
UTG (t4455)
UTG+1 (t33550)
Hero (t12175)
MP2 (t18165)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t12175</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t13575

My cards here were a bonus, I was going to shove ATC.