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  #1  
Old 02-25-2006, 10:24 AM
Wes64 Wes64 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dallas
Posts: 17
Default Help me analyze this hand

I was playing a $33 SnG on PartyPoker. Blinds were 50/100. I was in middle position with T1925. Player immediately to my right had T2250.

First two players to act fold. Player immediately to my right raises to 200. I have Ac Ad. I reraise to 400. All fold to first raiser who calls. Pot is 950, heads up on the flop.

Flop comes Kc Js 7c. Player to my right bets 500. I raise all-in to 1525. He calls.

He has 7h 9h. Turn and river are 7 and 9.

I don't mean this as a bad beat story. Help me break it down. If he made a mistake, where was it? calling my reraise preflop cost him 200 into a 750 pot, so the pot was laying him 9.5:2 on that play. Being the first into a pot by raising with suited connectors is not a crazy play. When he called my all-in there was 2975 in the pot and it was 1025 to call. He was a 3:1 underdog getting almost exactly correct odds. Was betting bottom pair on the flop a true mistake, or just a reasonable play that did not work the way he intended?

If I made a mistake, where was it? If I had raised more preflop, I might have driven him out and not gotten a chance to get all-in as a 3:1 favorite with the pot laying me 8:3 odds. Also, If I raised to 600 preflop, and he calls then the pot is so large that he is tied to it with his bottom pair, right?

Please help me get the most from this $33 lesson.
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  #2  
Old 02-25-2006, 10:31 AM
Lori Lori is offline
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Default Re: Help me analyze this hand

Don't think about pot odds, think about risk/reward in terms of how much this pot helps him should he win compared to what he loses if he doesn't win in terms of dollars, not chips.

Lori
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  #3  
Old 02-25-2006, 10:48 AM
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Default Re: Help me analyze this hand

villian is a clown. buddy list him asap.
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  #4  
Old 02-25-2006, 11:09 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Help me analyze this hand

[ QUOTE ]

Flop comes Kc Js 7c. Player to my right bets 500. I raise all-in to 1525. He calls.

He has 7h 9h. Turn and river are 7 and 9.


...When he called my all-in there was 2975 in the pot and it was 1025 to call. He was a 3:1 underdog getting almost exactly correct odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: Kc Js 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.0909 % 19.09% 00.00% { 9h7h }
Hand 2: 80.9091 % 80.91% 00.00% { AcAd }

Not even close to "almost correct odds".
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  #5  
Old 02-25-2006, 11:10 AM
indolent indolent is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 80
Default Re: Help me analyze this hand

welcome to my last five days of sng's buddy
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  #6  
Old 02-25-2006, 11:12 AM
wahooriver wahooriver is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 330
Default Re: Help me analyze this hand

You played it correctly. Suckouts happen - apparently around 19% of the time.

Do not change. Curse the poker odds, but do not change.
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