3handed TP on a drawheavy board

[Kobecarter]

Hi everybody! This hand is my first Post in the Limit Forum. Can i find a fold here after the Turn donk ?

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)  
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Position:
vp$ip foldbb ats pfr
af w$sd wts hands



BU:
39 18 39 29
3.7 20 18 77



CO:
49 9 44 11
0.3 55 40 551

</pre><hr />
15/30 Fixed-Limit Hold'em <font color="blue">(4 handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises</font>, <font color="grey">BU folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

[Guruman]

I don't play 15/30, but my impression is that if you fold here you're going to get run the hell over.

[Verde]

I think a fold is fine.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play 15/30, but my impression is that if you fold here you're going to get run the hell over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, unless you somehow manage to show your opponents that you had AJ. If I was observing this hand and hero folded the turn, I'd be as inclined to suspect he had a hand like 55/66 or maybe AK/AQ and played it like this. There's no way I am going to put Hero on AJ, unless I recognize him as a good enough player to realize what bad shape he is in; if that's the case, I'm also going to assume that he's not going to make a "weak" fold like this on a similar board in a different context, such as a HU pot.

Of course, if you're folding a ton anytime there are scary boards, then people will notice. But this is the case of folding in a multiway pot facing a bet on the turn from someone called two cold on a draw heavy flop and led out when a draw completing card hit, when you're not even closing the action. Folding here is not weak, it's arguably very sane. The presence of the third player in the pot protects it and along with how the action developed, it's very unlikely that SB had a draw or weak made hand on the flop without the T, and then decided to turn his hand into a bluff on the turn.

It basically depends on your read of SB. If he's a typical player, then I think this is a turn fold. If he's capable of calling 2 cold on the flop with QJ/KJ/AJ and then leading out on the J turn, that possibility would be enough to reconsider, but even then it's not clear that folding isn't best.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play 15/30, but my impression is that if you fold here you're going to get run the hell over.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd fold.