#11
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
fold
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#12
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
Barring metagame/history, a "Callable" reraise like this is just too often AA/KK here.
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#13
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
[ QUOTE ]
This hand depends on the metagame. What history do you and Peachy have? Edit: Is this peachy_keen? If so, Peachy is going to make his plays based on your previous history, so whatever history you have its important to divulge it to get a good read on whats going on in this hand. If you dont have any history, I'd probably push. [/ QUOTE ] so no history means push? seems like a bad idea. please explain why push is favorible over call or fold. |
#14
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
[ QUOTE ]
i think ppl over analyze this kind of situation, i just push and gamble. [/ QUOTE ] |
#15
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
without any other information, it looks like a fold to me.
but the table dynamic and history between the two of you is pretty important. |
#16
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
[ QUOTE ]
But you can't just say 'use intuition' and ignore the math aspect. Intuition is math. [/ QUOTE ] for sure, I agree. My point was more general about the way people analyze theses specific situations wheres its very hard to throw out any numbers that point to one decision. Also, in general QQ is slightly better than J10s or w/e here, since villain can always have AK (or spazz out with JJ) and call our 5-bet push- so "push your whole range or fold" (or push X% of the time and fold otherwise) isn't a completely accurate representation of this situation. -Jeff |
#17
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
This reminds me of the exact high stakes poker hand on the show High Stakes poker Season 2. the hand between Daniel Negreanu and Antonio Esterfdreia. Daniel is aware that Antonio is capable of making that move with rags, and daniel just lost a big pot (actually a few). So, IMO if you've seen her do this I'm leaning towards a push... if not. Fold.
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#18
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
fold ike, girls dont bluff!
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#19
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
LOL no one actually folds here cmon, ive seen peachy 4 bet light before so im pushing.
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#20
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Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?
I actually think you can get your answer here with some math if you assume both players are playing a respectable game.
Peachy is a good enough player that he should know two things. One is that he's putting his opponents in what's most likely a push/fold situation, the other is that its just generally a bad idea to try and push someone off QQ+, and AK preflop. So he's either bluffing preflop for immediate EV (just hoping both players will fold) or he's raising with a good hand he's intending to call a push with. Since a flop is unlikely from his perspective he would need a bluff to win at least 2/3 of the time to be profitable since he's risking 1500 to win just 750. If he feels you have an average 3 betting range you're going to have QQ+ and AKs around 30% of the time and the CO will have something like that around 10% of the time. There's also the chance that someone does something stupid with a hand like 99 or worse. He's probably getting played back at around 40-50% of the time and he needs that number to be 33% or less if the bluff is going to be profitable. I doubt he would have a specific grasp of the numbers but I think you should give peachy credit enough to know that bluffing is normally bad here. So he's only going to have a hand powerful enough to call a push and thats just most likely going to be QQ+/AKs or better which of course makes it a fold for your QQ. If he thinks your 3 betting range is wider than normal for whatever reason, a bluff could work but it would still be very thin. Also, obviously if you do fold QQ and AKs here a bluff will show a huge profit, but it just can't be expected that getting QQ and AKs to fold is something peachy would have in mind, since so many players just follow the standard and play them for stacks. |
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