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#1
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Local card room. The game's been going for a few hours. Fairly typical mix of loose and tight players. Buyin is 300 and stacks range from 100-600. I have 540 and a tight image.
EP raises to 15, two others call and I call on the button with Jh9h. BB calls and five go to the flop. Pot is 75. Flop comes 8s9s9c and it's checked around to tightish MP player with ~120 left. He bets 55. I have 525 in chips and raise to 200. Large raise designed to push out draws and get the hand heads up. I am sure I am ahead at this point. The BB, a weak-tight player, check raises all in for 430 total. Only MP calls. Pot is ~825. I am interested in the following: Call or fold? Is the decision marginal or a no-brainer? If you know your behind the BB does it change the situation? If you can "do business" and run the turn and river three times (the winner of each run getting a third of the pot), how does this affect the decision? Views on raising the flop to 200 given stack size. Thanks! |
#2
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Using Poker Stove:
We put BB on a range of A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9, suited or unsuited, 88, JsTs, and 97d, and we put MP on AsQs-AsTs, As7s, As6s. This gives us 33% equity for the main pot. If we remove MP, we have about 41% equity for the side pot if we call. So we are 33% for the main pot of 435, and 41% for a side pot of 620 if we call. This indicates an EV of ~400 for the call. Does this sound right? Any comments on the original questions? |
#3
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looks like a call.
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#4
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EV is actually closer to 330... was not factoring in splitting the proceeds in case of ties!
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#5
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In the hand I called. EP had Q9, MP A7s. Ran it three times and lost all three. Flush never hit.
Less interested in the result. More interested in views on Poker Stove or anything else. Don't want to be doing this again if it's negative EV. |
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