Final 3 WSEX Prices

[4Tay]

For those with WSEX knowledge from prior seasons, assuming Blake goes next week, what do you think Jordin & Melinda's prices will be?

Likewise, if Melinda goes, what do you think Jordin & Blake's prices will be.

Lastly, if Jordin goes, what do you think Melinda & Blake's prices will be.

I'm asking for hedging purposes.

[revots33]

I'd guess (buy price):

Jordin 70
Melinda 35

Jordin 72
Blake 33

Melinda 55
Blake 50

Something like that...

[busguy]

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I'm asking for hedging purposes.

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Tell me about it . . .

These three were my horses from the start. I've sold off some of each along the way but I still have 10 shares left of each of them. Now the question is which one to sell off this week . . .

[mynamewastaken]

Melinda is overvalued and Blake is undervalued imo. Has there ever been a f2 composed of the two best singers (except maybe s1, even then Guarini wasn't my 2nd fav).

I think a better question is what are fair odds on Jordin getting booted this week? Is she +300? +1000?

[thing85]

Here's the way I see it:

1) Melinda will either give us her usually "solid" performance that doesn't WOW anyone or she steps outside of her usual style and does something different (per the judges' advice). The former puts her at risk of going and the latter, if done very well, could propel her back to being 50/50 with Jordin (or close). My fairly arbitrary estimated chance of elimination: 40%

2) Blake will deliver mediocre vocals with his "unique spin." I think he HAS to do better than last week (it'd be hard not to) but he won't ever top his Bon Jovi week performance, IMO. The issue with Blake is that I believe he is the only contestant left who doesn't NEED to do well to make it into the finals. He's unique in the sense that he is the only male remaining (although this alone doesn't get him to the finals) and potentially has a huge fan base who doesn't exactly care how well he sings. If he does well and Melinda is "boring" (not bad, but offering nothing new or different), Melinda goes. My fairly arbitrary estimated chance of elimination: 45%

3) Jordin is the only inconsistent performer remaining, in my eyes. We know what to expect from Melinda and Blake (their success relies primarily on song choice and arrangement). Jordin is the only contestant who has shown she can be both a very good singer and also a very mediocre singer. We have seen both extremes from her (whereas Blake's vocals are consistently mediocre and Melinda's are consistently flawless). However, Jordin is riding her great performances from this past week, so she has a little bit of room for error. If Melinda shows us something different and Blake does very well (relative to his usual stuff), whereas Jordin shows us some of the not so great singing we've seen from her at times, she becomes vulnerable. My fairly arbitrary estimated chance of elimination: 15%

[4Tay]

Thanks all.

I know I've asked this before, but what was Katherine's price at Final 2 last year?

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm asking for hedging purposes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me about it . . .

These three were my horses from the start. I've sold off some of each along the way but I still have 10 shares left of each of them. Now the question is which one to sell off this week . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

i could be way off, but i really don't see any possible top 2 than the divas.

[busguy]

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i could be way off, but i really don't see any possible top 2 than the divas.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is my thought as well. Blake's "popularity" does worry me a little though. My gut says to sell off Blake. My head says Melinda may go this week.

[StellarWind]

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3) Jordin is the only inconsistent performer remaining, in my eyes. We know what to expect from Melinda and Blake (their success relies primarily on song choice and arrangement). Jordin is the only contestant who has shown she can be both a very good singer and also a very mediocre singer. We have seen both extremes from her (whereas Blake's vocals are consistently mediocre and Melinda's are consistently flawless).

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Since we are picking winners here what matters is the performance as a whole and not singing quality which is only one aspect of the whole.

After the last two weeks it's obvious that Blake is by far the most inconsistent performer (not singer) of the three. Jordin has a fairly average level of variability and Melinda is unusually consistent. Accordingly Blake is the biggest performance variable this week with Jordin second and Melinda a distant third.

[ QUOTE ]
The issue with Blake is that I believe he is the only contestant left who doesn't NEED to do well to make it into the finals. He's unique in the sense that he is the only male remaining (although this alone doesn't get him to the finals) and potentially has a huge fan base who doesn't exactly care how well he sings.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know about this Dog [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

When Jordin self-destructed on Bon Jovi week the DI evidence seemed to show that her support hardly dropped at all. Similarly I think Melinda's worshippers are well-fortified by three months of near perfection and will forgive a misstep or two. You are probably right about Blake's fans not exactly caring how he performs but I think that Jordin and Melinda fans feel the same way.

What I do know is LaKisha is gone and that should be a nice boost for Melinda and to some extent Jordin. Any way you analyze it Blake seems to be getting nothing out of LaKisha's departure.

My view is that this week boils down to who do you believe?

1. DI says that Melinda was a fairly distant third last week. Is this true or yet another example of DI bias? Note that by "bias" I mean error caused by something other than random variance. I'm not suggesting anything deliberate by the DI folks. Phil is the poster boy for DI bias as his results were way too high week after week even right up to the day he was voted off the show. Do you believe DI?

2. My long-term "sense of the show" is that Melinda is well ahead of Blake and always has been. Do you believe me?

3. Last week the results were depicted in a way that suggests Jordin > Melinda > Blake. This unspoken implication certainly doesn't need to be true but I'm inclined to believe it is. I prefer the obvious explanation for what I saw over the nefarious ones. Do you believe AI?

I think Blake is the odds-on favorite to leave us this week.

[nyc999]

Is this the week where judges pick songs for contestants? If so, I think Blake is probably in the toughest situation. Melinda nails everything and they'll probably give Jordin some soaring ballad that suits her strengths.

What do the judges pick for him?