10/20 weak fold?

[nutlow]

SB: 32/25/2.7/40
BB: 30/12/1.2/41
UTG: 25/6/0.43/31 (50 hands)

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8SB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds, SB calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, UTG checks.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, UTG checks.

Results:
Final pot: 6.5BB

too weak getting 12 to 1?

[jstill]

its not a weak fold its just an obviously incorrect fold odds wise, the flop call was definitely plus EV, u could call getting 8:1 so u lost out on theoretical money by folding.

yes u arent actually closing the action, but the fact ur getting an overlay on the pot (10.5:1 is the expressed odds for ur draw) and u have implied odds as well on the next two streets if u make the nuts.

I think ud have to peel this even if there was a fd on the board u didnt have a redraw of and were getting worse odds to see the turn, let alone of a rainbow board and getting 1.5x the odds we need roughly to call profitably.

edit: i dont know why but i thought he had KQ here not A7

[yourface]

I don't like preflop. he seems more weak tight than loose passive, so you likely aren't very far ahead of his range and he is limping some hands that have you dominated. this just isn't a good spot against this guy, and the possibility of people coming in behind you makes it even worse because your hand plays poorly multiway.

flop fold is pretty bad imo. you are getting sick pot odds and are frequently ahead anyways.

you shouldn't show the rest of the action after your fold as it skews replies. for instance, based on the turn and river action here it's quite likely you folded the best hand. not that I think it's a close decision on the flop, but if it was this turn and river action would make it more likely that I recommend calling.

[yourface]

jstill I think he is worried about being dominated in which case he is drawing to 3 not 5 outs.

[nutlow]

thanks for your responses.

I am worried he either has me dominated or i am drawing dead oder nearly dead. he isnt very aggressive and checkraises the whole field which makes me think he has a pretty strong hand leaving me drawing to 3 outs max.

assume i called the flop, how to proceed on the turn?

[jstill]

yeah i still think we cant fold vs the UTG limper. ur good too often as he mite limp and cr any suited A here and some offsuit ones, and even if ur behind to any non AT non set hand (and TT or AA seem unlikely) like TPGK u have the pot odds to try and spike a 3 outter and alittle more than 1/6th of the time u ll pick up a gutshot on the turn. U also have 3 extra counterfeit outs vs A6 on the flop and usually u ll pick up 3 more chop outs on the turn vs A6 and even sometimes vs AT.

fwiw i dont like preflop either now that I know we have A7o and not KQo

[yourface]

50 hands is too small a sample for his aggression factor stat (or his other stats really, but aggression factor moreso than pfr and vpip) to mean much. be cautious, but don't give him TOO much respect.

super easy turn peel with your picked up gutshot.

[jstill]

if u make his range very strong AT A6 TT 66 and AJ+ we have to call

also remember he should actually be more likely to "check raise the field" w/ any A (here just u and sb) than check raise HU, whether he knews it or not, since sb is often just burning money and ur cb'ing probably 100% anyways as the pfr.

[jba]

wow fold preflop what are you doing.

[MThomas]

I too disagree with your preflop play. A7 seems rather weak to raise with in CO with a limper. Additionally, the sample sizes are too small for an accurate read.
I also contend that you should have called the flop given 12:1 odds and then re-evaluate at the turn.

edit: mistakenly had A6 rather than A7