Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[New2This]

"Well clearly he wants to play this years WSOP, and getting a backer is better then not playing at all for him. The biggest problem people are having with this thread is that OP is just amazingly full of himself, which I think will only HELP him during the WSOP. I'd much rather stake someone who's overconfident then someone who's scared or weak in his play. "

I am very full of myself, i'm unaware of any very good poker players who aren't. Am i "one of the best players there" as i state previously? Who knows? I'm going to assume so until proven otherwise.

If you guys simply want some modesty to get off my back...

In a 1500 person event, i expect 750 will have nearly no chance of winning barring some extraordinary luck. Of the remaining 750, roughly half will have a small chance to win, the last 350 will all be players good enough to win the event if the short term luck is favorable. I am in that last group of 350 and whether or not i win will be determined based on a distribution reflected on my ROI, my style, and my attitude.

[New2This]

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Sure. While we're at it, we should just assume you can see the other players hole cards too.

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I apologize for how personally many people seem to be taking this... i'm aware there are many better players out there, i'm just trying to simplify things. My analysis would be pretty silly if i said something like "i'm better than average, probably a lot, but not quite world class".

My recent observed results are probably unsustainable and my sample size is very very small in live tournaments. However Gordon said in his little green book something about 400% ROI and i have no basis for comparison without all of your input. :-)

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Hey man,

I don't think that you're trying to be arrogant or anything, so I'm saying this in a friendly way: You're coming across as way too over-confident.

Fact #1: Your average buy in is $70
Fact #2: You're now buying into $1000+ MTTs


In short, I don't think you're a lot better than average at all. You're stepping up in stakes and thats always a risk. GL to you, I wish you the best. But don't expect to be the best at the table the very first time you move up in stakes.

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Thanks for your frankness Assani, it is refreshing and much respected in a an otherwise somewhat hostile thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm know i'm supercocky, i think that helps me achieve my goals, if not make friends ;-)

But i understand how everyone feels, i'm just some jackass making all sorts of claims that have little validity for people who don't know me.

I understand i'll be playing with a field of players within whom the best are much better than those i play with on a regular basis. I'm assuming there will be enough fish to pad the prizepool. I'm also assuming i'll be able to constantly put pressure on all the good players (like is my favorite pasttime in my current events) since i'm not afraid of going out in the first 30 minutes if i need to.

[New2This]

"btw, i just want to clarify that my comments were based on this quote he made (in white), not on his assumptions that hes a great player. "

TBStone, you have lost what little respect i ever had for you. Putting those comments in white was done to make them private for the poster who asked me about those aspects specifically. Surely you knew that and you copying them out in the rest of the text reeks of middle school bully.

[New2This]

"OK, I'll leave the assumptions to you, but here's how you work it out. Your probability of cashing in any one event is C. For an average player, C = 0.1 .

Probability of (cashing 0/7) = (1-C)^7 = 47.8% for average player"

In this case, "C" reflects an ROI of roughly zero, correct?

How would this formula change for someone with a ROI of 100%, howabout 200%?

Thanks a lot, this is super helpful.

[New2This]

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" I expect i'll be one of the best players in each of the events i play in, perhaps with the exception of the $1k rebuys."

how do you figure? that is a bold statement, i don't know anything about you but this seems pretty unlikely

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I could be way off, who knows. I base this off three main assumptions: I'm ProRanked within the top 1000 players. Secondly, i've witness very few players who played better. Third, i think i'm better than several top player/authors and i presume this means i'm at least in their league, plus or minus some leaks we may each have. But really who knows... i'm sure that believing it goes a long way towards making it so however, so i'm gonna stick with that.

[jae686]

I haven't read all of the replies so I don't know if this has been mentioned yet...

ROI and cash % do not go hand-in-hand nearly as much as you seem to think. ROI is really quite irrelevant in determining the risk of busting from every tournament because it is just an expression of expected value. Cash % is much more complicated in a sense, and is the only factor needed to calculate your chances of going 0/7. It is a reflection of both your skill and your variance (based on play style).

If you want to look at EV, ROI is important. But if you just care about not going 0 for 7 (kinda silly IMO) cash % is all you need.

[Bonified]

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Good hedge, good fun, good experience, chance of big payout, improve my game, etc


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Fair enough, but you could do all these things by going with $5000 and spinning up the single table satellites, which are _really_ soft. Play tournaments with STT winnings. Profit. Hopefully :-)

Regarding ROI/Chance of cashing, what jae said.

Good luck whatever you do.

[johnnyrocket]

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Even if you are the #1 best player in the field, your chances of making 1 final table out of only 7 tries isn't very good. The field size in the events you mention, if they are all NLH, is going to be over 1,000. Even a great player will make the final table here only about 1 time in 20-30, if that. So, you might be about 5:1 against making a final table in your run, but you've probably got less of a chance than that.

The field size has little impact on your chances of cashing, but they do only pay about 10% of the field. Again, even a great player can't expect to cash more than 1, maybe 2, times out of 7. So, for you to expect 2-3 times is unreasonable.

Have fun, whatever happens.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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i agree completely with this, not because he is a former champion

you are extremely underestimating these field. You think you have a great shot at 1 FT with 1000+ players in every event. Greg is right that your shot is more like 1 out of 20-30, if you cash twice you will have had a great performance.

[rgold79]

Johnny the internal voice in my head actually reads your posts in Johnny Drama's voice. I love that.

New2This - you're really an arrogant bastard, but I really do mean that in a totally complimentary way. It takes an enormous amount of self-confidence to succeed at this game. Just remember that the best ones know when to turn off their ego.

[THAY3R]

You guys are crazy if you think a live 1k event is harder than a $100 dollar buyin online.