Variance in 3/6 LHE

[hofimax]

Hi guys,

just came home with a loss of 200$ at a loose-passive 3/6 table (avg. 6 peaople at flop, 2 at showdown) without making any obvious mistake. Folded most of the hands on the flop due to not hitting anything beeing in bb.

Played about 15 hands in 1.5 hours of play (ATs, ATs, AJ, AJ, KJ, Q9s, JTs, JT, 32s, 54s, 79s, TT, 88, 22) and my trash hands in the bb and the only pot I won was a tiny one with T6 where I flopped two pair.

I mean it would not have been necessary to write down all hands bit I simply had to because I really played well and now I'm somewhat on tilt. Of course the were some bad beats (runner runner flush against my set and similar) but is a 200$ swing that normal??!?

Has anyone experience or even better a mathematical attempt to variance calculation for different stakes levels??

Greets
hofimax

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
is a 200$ swing that normal??!?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, incredibly so. Just pat yourself on the back for only losing 30-something BBs when you ran that cold, and look forward to the other side of variance hitting some time in the future.

[Frond]

That can happen even in 90 mins of play. You should post some of your hands if you can recall them fairly accurately for some to review and see what they say about them.

Out of those hands you played did you cold call any raises from your right?

23s isn't really a good hand to play outside of a blind IMO. and 45s is questionable in certain games as well.

Just how far did you go with the hands that you did play?

If there weren't many PF raises and you played 15 hands, in a hour & a half , then something is going on here with your play. If you were just folding when you missed most of the flops that would only be $45, (probably more for a raise here and there PF). Sounds like you may have taken some hands a bit too far or cold called too much. Just speculating here. I may be wrong though.

[NormandySD]

I play at an extremely loose passive game where I am miles aheaed of my competition and I lose more nights than I win. However when I do win 1 night it is the equivalent of about 6 losses. Usually Ill lose 140 or so in a loss... but when I win at that table Ill be up like 500 - 600. High variance in the loose games... 200 aint bad.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of those hands you played did you cold call any raises from your right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Averaging 6 players to the flop, coldcalling with suited connectors isn't much of a mistake. If you can fold them postflop when you catch a little.

Coldcalling with AJo & KJo, that's another matter.

[Frond]

Trying to get an idea of any hands OP cold called with if any. And what positions he played certian hands in. It may give us more info. Those JT, KJ, 23s and AJ hands would be good to check out. OP see if you can recall some of these hands. How do you play post?

[synbad13]

I played some live 3/6 other night under similar conditions. I played for about 4 hours.
I down about $125 at the bottom of the valley (at about the 2 and a half hour mark).
I easily could have finished losing 200-300 if I didn't hit hands (because you probably wont win a pot with aggressively betting and gettin folds).
However I ended up leaving $280 when I hit the other side of variance.
These are swingy games, but know that you need to showdown to win, so play your strong hands strong, don't be too tricky, and don't start calling with 84o utg because you know others will limp in behind you.

[Chino987]

looks like a cold deck to me.

fwiw, 2 weeks ago i played pretty well and dropped $400 in a 4/8 game in about 6 hours. the next week i played no better (maybe a bit worse) in a 7.50/15 game and won $1200 in 12 hours.

welcome to variance.

[Harv72b]

Just to elaborate on what I said above, in 2 hours of online play tonight I went through a 50 BB downswing and a 40 BB upswing.

[Xhad]

1.5 hrs? 30-ish BB downswing? Yeah that's far from outlandish; I used to play 3/6 B&M upwards of 20 hours a week and this happened once a week at least. I've almost lost that much just folding every hand for almost an entire session (only pot I won I c/r'ed J4o on a tell-assisted bluff).