i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)

[lucktard]

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All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be.

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Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial.

Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

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Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd.

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Do you know anything about statistics?
Here there are 18K hands, not a million.
A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%.


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lol. 18k hands is NOTHING. You are basing your 'statistical model' on a vastly inadequate sample size. Repeat: OP could be a loser by chance alone. What are the chances of that? Who knows, the sample size is way too small to mean anything.

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Yes it is a total mystery. the world will never know.