KK faces raise on turn

smw1992 · #1 05-09-2007, 04:12 AM

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Villain seems tight have only seen a couple of hands he has played. I have him at 17/6/3.5 over a small sample (54 hands - with so few hands should we treat him as unknown). What do you put him on with the turn raise? Flush draw, trips, overpair? Is the turn a call, shove, or fold?

UTG ($49.50)
UTG+1 ($54.40)
MP1 ($16.25)
MP2 ($23.65)
MP3 ($50.35)
CO ($26.55)
Button ($45.75)
Hero ($69.30)
BB ($39.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.7, 5 folds, Hero raises to $3.75, BB calls $3, UTG+1 calls $1.80.

Flop: ($10.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $7.5, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50.

Turn: ($25.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15.5, UTG+1 raises to $31, Hero ???

raistlinx · #2 05-09-2007, 06:52 AM

Tough one. If we give him a range of AA-99, 55, 22 pokerstove says you have to shove:

Board: 5d 2h 9h 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.813% 56.25% 01.56% 792 22.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 42.188% 40.63% 01.56% 572 22.00 { 99+, 55, 22 }

but I'm not so sure I'd take that at face value. 22 and 99 are unlikely as is AA perhaps. But does QQ-TT play this way and hope to push you off the pot?

I don't hate a push given that he raised pf and I don't hate a fold. I do hate a call though.

BlueBear · #3 05-09-2007, 07:12 AM

Raise preflop much bigger. I'm too lazy to calculate but a pot-sized raise is about to $6-$7. Your opponent underdoubtedly wants you to call, hence I fold on the turn.

Jurrr · #4 05-09-2007, 08:08 AM

3bet more pre.

I think his range is overpairs and 99. Yes, 54 hands isn't much, but even this small sample makes it unlikely that he raises 22/55 UTG+1. It makes it pretty unlikely.

Board: 5d 2h 9h 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.944% 29.02% 01.92% 332 22.00 { 99+ }
Hand 1: 69.056% 67.13% 01.92% 768 22.00 { KcKs }

So shove.

Your situation is only grim if we exclude most hands that we beat from his range:

Board: 5d 2h 9h 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.773% 62.27% 02.50% 548 22.00 { QQ+, 99, 55, 22 }
Hand 1: 35.227% 32.73% 02.50% 288 22.00 { KcKs }

smw1992 · #5 05-09-2007, 11:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop much bigger. I'm too lazy to calculate but a pot-sized raise is about to $6-$7.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was the only opponent to bet/call before me and I was small blind. Based on that pot was $2.45 (0.25+0.50+1.70) so I bet more than the pot. So you suggest raising more than twice the pot is that correct? Betting $6-7 into a $2.50 pot, do you expect to get callers?

smw1992 · #6 05-09-2007, 11:16 AM

Do you see a flush draw playing like this?

raistlinx · #7 05-09-2007, 11:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you see a flush draw playing like this?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not without seeing him make that play before.

smw1992 · #8 05-09-2007, 11:54 AM

If you were holding AKh would you raise the flop? Raise or call preflop with AK?

smw1992 · #9 05-09-2007, 12:54 PM

I shoved and villain showed 10-9c and won with trip 9s. Based on what I had seen from him I did not see him raising UTG+1 with suited connectors. I appreciate all for their replies.