Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[jellytheory]

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do you find it uncomfortable not being able to crap on a regular basis? or do you take your head out of your ass in between craps and put it right back in immediately after?

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I'm definately interested in seeing how the OP fares at the WSOP. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Please don't scare him off! :P

-Chris

[New2This]

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do you find it uncomfortable not being able to crap on a regular basis? or do you take your head out of your ass in between craps and put it right back in immediately after?

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I'm definately interested in seeing how the OP fares at the WSOP. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Please don't scare him off! :P

-Chris

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Why so many people find need to be rude to complete strangers is beyond me. I've put a lot of effort into fully responding to everyone's inputs, keep it to yourself if you don't have something useful to share.

[New2This]

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I agree with everyone regarding the prospects for no cashes in seven tourneys. I'm assuming the budget is at least $12-14k for you (including the two rebuys). Having only played in one WSOP event, a $2k last year, I would actually suggest lowering the number of tourneys from seven to four and increasing the buy-in for each. These low buy-in events at the WSOP, while a bit better with double stacks, seem like a bigtime crapshoot. I'd be interested if others felt this way (better to play fewer, higher buy-in events) or if OP's plan is better (more small buy-in events).

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With $7,500 in fixed entries, plus 2 - $1k rebuys, I would put the projected total investment at around $17,500 - $19,500, assuming optimal play/rebuy strategy.

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I'm budgeting $6,000 per rebuy event, an immediate rebuy, the double addon and $2k remaining for a double rebuy if i get knocked out from all the "shortstack tournament" accumulation strategies. My budget for these 7 tournaments is then $20,500, perhaps not using as much as $4,000 of that.

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Thanks for all the input everyone, i've got what info i needed from our discussion, my backer thanks you as well.

I won't have overly high expectations of cashing in such a small sample. My backer understands that there is a high chance of no money finishes, we have decided to focus on the weekends tournaments and skip the rebuys since those would seem to be the most pro-filled and less touristy since on weekdays.

[okterrific]

-new2this

I wish you luck and i hope you right a detailed trip report regardless of your results. It would be interesting.

good luck and HAVE FUN.

and play some cash games.

[stephenNUTS]

"""I won't have overly high expectations of cashing in such a small sample. My backer understands that there is a high chance of no money finishes, we have decided to focus on the weekends tournaments and skip the rebuys since those would seem to be the most pro-filled and less touristy since on weekdays""

Yes......the "most Pro-filled" and "less touristy tournaments" is the way to go,and will be a real piece of cake.
After reading your bio/track record ,IMHO ,of the seven events you enter,I would think anything less than at least FIVE cashes ,TWO Final Tables ,and ONE WSOP Bracelet WIN would be a disappointment,in which case your backers would then have to seriously reconsider their investment!

[pig4bill]

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I won't have overly high expectations of cashing in such a small sample. My backer understands that there is a high chance of no money finishes, we have decided to focus on the weekends tournaments and skip the rebuys since those would seem to be the most pro-filled and less touristy since on weekdays.

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You can count on almost every event having plenty of pros. They are after bracelets.

But hey, you got nothing to worry about. You did well in school and watch lots of poker videos.

[The Dingo]

On your $10.5k investment you are needing say 1 27th place finish to make say 2.8 times your buy in, so you really need 1 top 10 finish in the 7 events or 3 top 27 finishes in 7 etc etc

If you are the kind of player who cashes deep on a more regular statistical basis you may have +ev and a low ROR but given the wild variations at WSOP almost impossible to guess.

[SossMan]

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the guy just wanted an answer based on an assumption (he made the assumption part clear) and everyone jumps on him for one statement, which, even if OP believed to be true, we should be happy to indulge. Why is everyone so hysterical and insecure? Just answer his question assuming he's the next Carlos Mortensen.

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seriously, what is wrong with you guys? the guy is a new poster and we make him feel like an a-hole because he wanted to use assumptions?

This community is less and less friendly lately.

[The Dingo]

Another thought is you may like to look at the PLH events say the $2500 and $5000 as the low buy in NLH are absolutely crazy.

Last year I played in 7 smaller WPT, WSOP and Bellagio events.

I am a very regular NLH cash player and have a good spread of results over a long time.

From your information you are a WAY BETTER player than I with a higher +EV.

Anyway over the 7 events I played

$500 WPT Mirage - busted in 25 minutes

$1500 NLH WSOP 06 - busted after 8 hours after playing very well and getting hit by the deck

$2500 PLH WSOP 06 - cashed in 26th place for $6480

$1060 Bellagio II - bubbled

$750 WPT Borgata - played like a bloody goat

$2500 WPT BOrgata - busted after 7 hours

$120 Taj Mahal - placed 3rd for $850

Total Buy Ins = $7430
Cashes = $7330

Minor loss but here is the key in the PLH I WOULD HAVE BUSTED OUT if it were NLH at least 2 times before we made the money so if you are a really good player and want to avoid the more random luck associated with WSOP low $ buy ins look at the PLH and maybe the $5000 short handed NLH as these events attract better players and generally more generic play

Looking at your figures more analytically

Lets assume you are a really +EV tournamnent cash player (say like a James van Alstyne). Look at a distribution of your recent higher buy in events and use a statistical sample to give yourself a per event expectation, then use a binomial distribution to calculate your Risk of ruin. [eg At 0.8% per event and 7 events you would have a ror = 20% roughly]
Good luck

[The Dingo]

Fossilman makes a GREAT POINT here as well.

I used to play NLH cash at Bellagio and Palms every day for 12 months and was a winning player against the pros (the likes of Joe Awada, Keith Quilty, Massimoto, Lock, Jon Turner etc), now I did not kill these games but read all of the guys well.

Translate that now to players in an aggressive tourny structure where tells are far more relevant and the real pros just pick you off.

In my PLH event at WSOP 2006 I had Andy Black opposite me and Jesse Martin at my table to start. First hand I value bet a flopped straight with 4 guys in the hand, all the pros fold. My 1 attempt at a bluff against Craig Gray (a very good young pro) and I get picked off. I then had to endure Roland de Wolfe raising every bloody blind I had (i got lucky and knocked him out). By the time we got through 500 of the 560 players I was sitting with Mike Sexton, John Gale, Alex JACOB, Craig Gray, JR Bellande.

Now watching tv I can get tells on these guys but live it is much harder to pick their patterns and the only hands I beat the pros in over 2 days were where I decided to PLAY DEATH POTS with them (ie make it a race).

My advice is when you sit down at the table watch everyone like a hawk for the 1st hour and unless you have the nuts keep the pots very small. WATCH OUT for the pros OVERBETTING pots as they do this regularly to bust fish