Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[New2This]

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let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.

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Wow. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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1) No one knows who i am or how i play
2) I know how the good players play and how to abuse them
3) I've supported myself for 2+ years doing nothing but poker.
4) This Is Just A Simplifying Assumption ;-)

[New2This]

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IM very HO, on-line results do not translate well into live events. On-line sample sizes speak well of your application of math, probability, and positional play, but one decent live tell and you are toast. Your live play results are far too small to be significant quantitatively, but qualitatively, they can boost your confidence. I believe you are wasting your time with this calculation. Work on what matters - chip tricks and bladder control!

Good Luck!

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Thanks for your input. I agree that online games and live events are not particularly compatible. All i'm sure of is that my results have been far above average in both venues, though i certainly lack the sample size live to make reasonable long term assumptions.

I expect that i may encounter some players who are good at using tells against me, i plan to use that against them as much as possible.

Good point about the bladder control, that can be so brutal even just in the 1.5 hours stretches more common in smaller events.

[jacksquat]

check out the results from last years 1k rebuy event.....

750 or so entries, paid top 70 or so, probably only break-even at 35 or so, at least 25 recognizable names ( a. cunningham won it) in the top 70.

good luck.........

[jeramy576]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

1) No one knows who i am or how i play
2) I know how the good players play and how to abuse them
3) I've supported myself for 2+ years doing nothing but poker.
4) This Is Just A Simplifying Assumption ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

They'll figure you out in 10 minutes and break you. They're pros for a reason.

[New2This]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

1) No one knows who i am or how i play
2) I know how the good players play and how to abuse them
3) I've supported myself for 2+ years doing nothing but poker.
4) This Is Just A Simplifying Assumption ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

They'll figure you out in 10 minutes and break you. They're pros for a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm a pro too, but by all means lets keep assuming i'm lying and have no idea how to play ;-)

[jacksquat]

it was brought up earlier, but if you are indeed as good as you say you are.... why the need to be staked. you should be able to win enough cash and/or seats at your local casino or online. furthermore, why would you need to seek advice in this forum, as you already know it all and react with hostility to any suggestions?

i should prolly just let it go, but now i am really curious. what makes you a pro? just because you say you are.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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2) I know how the good players play and how to abuse them

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This is the reason some posters are coming down on you. Unless you have played with the good players in person, you do not know how they play. Watching us on TV does not tell you much of anything about our game. They only show you a small percentage of the hands, and they sometimes edit in shots from one hand when we're playing another hand. So, even if you think you've spotted tells on us, be careful, as they might be tells that did not happen at the time shown on the tv program.

Have fun.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[shaniac]

the guy just wanted an answer based on an assumption (he made the assumption part clear) and everyone jumps on him for one statement, which, even if OP believed to be true, we should be happy to indulge. Why is everyone so hysterical and insecure? Just answer his question assuming he's the next Carlos Mortensen.

[New2This]

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it was brought up earlier, but if you are indeed as good as you say you are.... why the need to be staked. you should be able to win enough cash and/or seats at your local casino or online. furthermore, why would you need to seek advice in this forum, as you already know it all and react with hostility to any suggestions?

i should prolly just let it go, but now i am really curious. what makes you a pro? just because you say you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize for any perceived hostility, if there is any its from misplaced annoyance at the continued questioning about an aspect of my question that no one can really help me with. (how good i am)

I just want to know what the best players are accomplishing because i have no reason to presume i won't perform comparably until proven wrong.

To answer your questions... (see below in white text so
we don't bother other people who might not care about this)
<font color="white">
I'm not staking myself because $20k represents too large a portion of my bankroll considering what is apparently a high risk of ruin.

I've played over 5000 tournaments, supporting myself with $5k/month expenses for more than 2 years. I majored in Economics and Psych. Before poker i was CFO for a strategic consulting firm, i've achieved the rank of chess master and was 4th in the US at blitz chess back when i was 18. I scored perfect on my SATs, read every good poker book ever written (about 45). I've watched and "mastered" every PXF video, i've received countless comments from top players about their respect for my game. I play 40 hours a week and work on side problems, reading, watching poker videos etc for another 20 hours a week. I stay in peak mental and physical health through good diet, rest, exercise and meditation. And aside from all of this, i'm extremely lucky in everything i do and work as hard as i possibly can to achieve my goals.

Can we close that part of this discussion now? Please ;-) </font>

[TStoneMBD]

do you find it uncomfortable not being able to crap on a regular basis? or do you take your head out of your ass in between craps and put it right back in immediately after?