deep rr'ed set, very ugly river card

[schwza]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($914)
SB ($230)
Hero ($851.10)
UTG ($992.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $56</font>, UTG folds, Button calls $40.

Flop: ($118) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $88</font>, Button calls $88.

Turn: ($294) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $215</font>, Button calls $215.

River: ($724) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
hero?

villain is preposterous. he's around 28/21. my only relevant note on him is "not a nit"

[dtan05]

I thought prep played at 3/6. anyway, I like c/f here. But I don't see him calling 2 barrels with KK, leaving only TT, AA, AK. Does he call 3bets light? Any history?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought prep played at 3/6. anyway, I like c/f here. But I don't see him calling 2 barrels with KK, leaving only TT, AA, AK. Does he call 3bets light? Any history?

[/ QUOTE ]

we haven't played in a bit (i guess he was playing 3/6?), so i don't remember history very well, but my sense is that he will call a 3bet pretty light in position and deep. ATs and AJs are both definitely in his range, and i wouldn't be that surprised by AJo.

[dtan05]

Oh okay, then I'd like c/c if the math turns out right, given the range you give him. I don't think betting accomplishes anything. IMO of course, I am ex MSNL banished to the land of SSNL temporarily.

[schwza]

i think that that c/f is better than c/c. villain pretty much has to have something worth showing down, and i don't think he's going to bet any two pair hands.

[FBP]

Value push? This river only hit AK to beat you, your hand doesn't look that horrible to me. I don't really take the 9 straight into account, although he may be scared of it, he really can't have one here.
I'm focusing on AT/AJ/AQ/TT, if he's got AK/AA (AA less likely as played, he'd raise earlier) well tough luck right? So basically value push your 2nd nuts.

[dtan05]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that that c/f is better than c/c. villain pretty much has to have something worth showing down, and i don't think he's going to bet any two pair hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

woops, didn't think about the 2p hands not betting. Yeah, I agree, c/f seems better.

[HERE_2_gamble_]

Id bet more on on flop, then 300 on turn and shove most rivers, as played It's pretty close between a shove and c/f.

[johnnyrocket]

yea i think only AK beats us here, he woulda pushed with AA already and so i think i go broke here

[B&O99]

This river card isn't really that bad for you. I would c/c because if you shove prep is only calling with Kx, and he loves to call 3-bets with all kinds of hands, and could definitely bet this river as a bluff or for value. It will be a shove either way. He might even turn 2-pair into a bluff on this river cause he knows its probably not good.

Pushing is bad tho even though I think you probably have the best hand alot.