Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[New2This]

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" I expect i'll be one of the best players in each of the events i play in, perhaps with the exception of the $1k rebuys."

how do you figure? that is a bold statement, i don't know anything about you but this seems pretty unlikely

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Thanks for all the responses.

I agree my statement is bold and perhaps optimistic. I use this assumption since it would seem to simplify the "problem". We can easiest make presumptions about 3 types of players, awful ones with almost no chance, average ones with a chance reflected based on commonly known statistics, and phenomenal players with figures that exceed currently available benchmarks and may outperform most reasonable guesses.

Since i know i'm waaaay better than average, it seems most useful to presume i'm the absolute best and adjust my guesstimates accordingly, rather than starting with the presumption of average.

I really want to simplify this analysis as much as possible, let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.