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#1
05-08-2007, 04:33 AM
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Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
ok so me and a buddy were railing matusow, aba, etc play omaha...and we started prop betting the flops
person A Wins $10 if no flop is seen Wins $15 if first card on flop was a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] person B Wins $10 if [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or was first card on flop whos getting the better of it in the long run? also, if player A is getting the worst of it, how much would he need to get if the heart hit in order to get best of it also its 50-100 PLO 6handed...couldnt really gage % of flops being seen but it seemed around 7-8 outta 10 
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#2
05-08-2007, 05:08 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
if 8 flops are being seen- the guy with three suits is getting roughly $60 per ten hands. the guy with the hearts and the no flop is getting $50. make the no flops $15 and this is an even line at 8 flops per 10 hands seen.
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#3
05-08-2007, 05:19 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
[ QUOTE ]
if 8 flops are being seen- the guy with three suits is getting roughly $60 per ten hands. the guy with the hearts and the no flop is getting $50. make the no flops $15 and this is an even line at 8 flops per 10 hands seen. [/ QUOTE ] This makes no sense at all. They either see a flop or don't (50/50). A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes first or doesn't (50/50). So each hand person A wins 0.5*10 + 0.5*0.5*15 - 0.5*0.5*10 = $6.25 Seems like person B is getting screwed HARD.
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#4
05-08-2007, 05:22 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if 8 flops are being seen- the guy with three suits is getting roughly $60 per ten hands. the guy with the hearts and the no flop is getting $50. make the no flops $15 and this is an even line at 8 flops per 10 hands seen. [/ QUOTE ] This makes no sense at all. They either see a flop or don't (50/50). A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes first or doesn't (50/50). So each hand person A wins 0.5*10 + 0.5*0.5*15 - 0.5*0.5*10 = $6.25 Seems like person B is getting screwed HARD. [/ QUOTE ] My bad. I'm going to have to go back and rework my math on the outs each person has also to include it in any correct answer.
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#6
05-08-2007, 07:02 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
cmon noseeds youre better than that
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#7
05-08-2007, 07:04 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
[ QUOTE ]
They either see a flop or don't (50/50). A comes first or doesn't (50/50). [/ QUOTE ] This cannot be right. I buy a powerball ticket with jackpot of 10 million. I either win or a don't (50/50) so I win 10m*.5=5million Seems like the state is getting screwed HARD
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#9
05-08-2007, 09:30 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
Person B is a(.25 * -15 + .75 * 10 ) + (1-a).-10 where a is flop %. From this a = 72.7% for break even.
Regards, Punter
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#10
05-08-2007, 09:40 AM
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Re: Help me figure out whos getting the better of this please
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] They either see a flop or don't (50/50). A comes first or doesn't (50/50). [/ QUOTE ] This cannot be right. I buy a powerball ticket with jackpot of 10 million. I either win or a don't (50/50) so I win 10m*.5=5million Seems like the state is getting screwed HARD [/ QUOTE ] In this case it is different. Someone, not you, either wins or they don't so the state only needs to sell 5 million tickets to break even
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