27s: disagree with SNGPT?

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone break down the logic of the push here with that junk?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really all that junky. A suited one-gapped connector is a helluva lot better than a dominated A or K. I have a new mantra, "You gotta give yourself a chance to suck-out."

[SeanyBullets]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone break down the logic of the push here with that junk?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really all that junky. A suited one-gapped connector is a helluva lot better than a dominated A or K. I have a new mantra, "You gotta give yourself a chance to suck-out."

[/ QUOTE ]

Best. Advice. Ever [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[GotQuads]

Here's a chance to make a big mistake by using Sng-PT, but not your brain.

Sng-PT does NOT(!) factor in the blinds next hand, it's just an ICM calculator for the hand you were just dealt that's all. This makes SNG-PT basically worthless in this particular scenario, and most likely shoving is correct.

[TEKEE]

i like the push in this spot id do the same if i were in your shoes.

[Bubblefish]

I have tried to quantify the effect off the big blind hitting Hero in the next hand. If we assume everyone folds if we folds in the original hand, we get in this situation:
UTG 1870
CO 3490
Btn 3615
SB 2975
Hero 1550

Assuming all players play by the equilibrium ranges I have calculated Heros EV after each of the 25 possible outcomes of this hand, and weighted them with the chances of each outcome. My calculations shows that Heros equity after this hand (as BB) is 11,13 %. This is indeed far away from the 13 % fold Equity suggested by SNGPT in the original hand.


Even if my presumptions are somewhat off, I think this indicates that Hero can make a larger –EV push then -1,5 %.

[Jshuttlesworth]

[ QUOTE ]
I have tried to quantify the effect off the big blind hitting Hero in the next hand. If we assume everyone folds if we folds in the original hand, we get in this situation:
UTG 1870
CO 3490
Btn 3615
SB 2975
Hero 1550

Assuming all players play by the equilibrium ranges I have calculated Heros EV after each of the 25 possible outcomes of this hand, and weighted them with the chances of each outcome. My calculations shows that Heros equity after this hand (as BB) is 11,13 %. This is indeed far away from the 13 % fold Equity suggested by SNGPT in the original hand.


Even if my presumptions are somewhat off, I think this indicates that Hero can make a larger –EV push then -1,5 %.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, nice. thank you very much

[Slim Pickens]

Very nice, but I have a problem with the statement "I think this indicates that Hero can make a larger –EV push then -1,5 %." What is the $EV of the next (BB) hand after the two possible outcomes of pushing? Is it different than 11.13%?

[Bubblefish]

I have not calculated the EV after Hero push. It will be too much of a job. There are 6 different outcomes after a Hero push. Each outcome results in 25 possible new situations to be evaluated. Even thou it is not correct to ignore the effect of the hitting of BB after a push I think it is much less affected than the position after Hero folds. If Hero loose he will have 0 chips, and the EV should be correctly calculated by SNGPT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If Hero push and wins he will have double the amount of chips, and be much less influenced by the hitting of the large BB. The biggest difference in Equity is when everyone folds to Heros push. Maybe I should calculate this equity… I might do it…

[JROK777]

This is an auto any two card shove for me, because the next hand will be an auto any two card call for me, so let's take advantage of any FE we might have (which is bolstered by the fact that we are pushing from UTG, even though many of us will assign a wider range to a SS UTG shover, many of the horrible players we see don't).

The "desperado" UTG shove, top secret standard play!
In the next hand we will have 3 BB's. Any decent player will push ATC out of the SB into us. We have to call this shove with any 2 cards geting huge odds on the $.

[GotQuads]

What 6 different outcomes do you mean? If Hero pushes there's a lot more possible outcomes, especially if we consider multiway all-ins.

Overall I think by not pushing we give up so much $EV by getting hit by the BB that I fully agree with your analysis that -1% is not a problem at all.

BTW: SNGPT does not say it's an obvious fold. It's very close anyways. Not sure what ranges were assumed by OP? Certainly only the blinds are going to call with a wide range, but not the other players