KQs pf call or cap

[Chino987]

live game.

donk #1 limps, i raise KQs in MP, donk #2 cold calls, SB (TAG) 3 bets, donk #1 calls. do i have enough equity to cap? TAG's range is 99+, AK, AQ.

if not, how many more donks holding random junk do we need to cap PF profitably?

[James.]

it's very thin, but you can cap right now. it's almost EV neutral though. one more and it's profitable.

[Ricks]

You seem to be quite short on equity.

I think that the ranges for limper and cold caller that I used to stove this are loose because I assume this to be a live game, but if you tighten them up the equity is even worse.

78,409,603 games 137.360 secs 570,832 games/sec



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.468% 20.10% 01.37% { 44+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 21.029% 20.04% 00.99% { KQs }
Hand 2: 19.820% 18.64% 01.18% { 55+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo }
Hand 3: 37.683% 36.53% 01.16% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Chino987]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be quite short on equity.

I think that the ranges for limper and cold caller that I used to stove this are loose because I assume this to be a live game, but if you tighten them up the equity is even worse.

78,409,603 games 137.360 secs 570,832 games/sec



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.468% 20.10% 01.37% { 44+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 21.029% 20.04% 00.99% { KQs }
Hand 2: 19.820% 18.64% 01.18% { 55+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo }
Hand 3: 37.683% 36.53% 01.16% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah figured as much. good analysis thanks ricks.

[Rastadon]

If they are totally random, you have a tiny edge.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.306% 16.67% 00.64% 9426305 363021.92 { random }
Hand 1: 25.145% 24.59% 00.57% 13903208 320886.08 { KQs }
Hand 2: 17.319% 16.69% 00.64% 9434818 362281.08 { random }
Hand 3: 40.230% 39.68% 00.56% 22439029 318383.42 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

With a 3rd random donk:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.710% 14.00% 00.71% 3216309 161979.60 { random }
Hand 1: 22.428% 21.81% 00.61% 5009867 141079.55 { KQs }
Hand 2: 14.707% 14.00% 00.71% 3215670 162056.38 { random }
Hand 3: 33.444% 32.89% 00.56% 7552937 127864.88 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 4: 14.711% 14.00% 00.71% 3216299 162239.72 { random }