100NL:: AK in reraised pot. reverse implied odds situation?

[AsydRayne]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $133.90
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $107.55</font>
UTG: $49.50
CO: $125.05
BTN: $130.55

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, CO calls $10

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($28.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, CO calls $15

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($58.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $30</font>, Hero ??

Villain is 25 16 over 200 hands. I have the flush outs and possible overcards. The bet is small giving me 5 : 1 implied odds. On the other hand, the board is paired. Do I call here? and if so, what is my plan for the river if a non spade A or K hits?

In retrospect, I think b/f this turn may be the best plan. Thoughts?

[joeblack]

Fold. I have lost money multiple times by making calls like this.

[Jigsaws]

I would bet slightly more on the flop ($19-21) or just check-fold.

On the turn check-calling is the worst of your options. You're not going to get paid off if you hit any of your outs.

I would CRAI here sometimes, if I had a read that my opponent is overeager to protect his hand. However, in this particular spot I don't like a CRAI, because on this board I would never check an overpair without a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because I don't want to give a free card. So a CRAI would look too much like a draw.

Usually my image is pretty solid and not-out-of-line, so I would double barrel here a lot, and usually bet enough to commit myself. I would expect to fold out anything but KK+/Jx. We're drawing dead very rarely, though we'll only have 9 outs a fair amount.

If my image was bad, I would just check-fold.

[kayfish77]

just fold since you checked turn. i usually go into kamikaze mode in 3bet pots and just keep betting but since weve missed that we cant call since you're not getting paid on the river if you hit ever.

[Imrahil]

Does anyone like shoving the turn here? I'm assuming a normal 3bet calling range for this TAG. Sure, he could have AJ but I don't think that's very likely. I think he most likey has QQ or TT here. AA and KK would have probably shoved the flop. I doubt he has a flush because most flushes that just made it probably had a good draw on the flop that a lot of people would shove with.

[AsydRayne]

FWIW I called the turn. Now for the river decision.

Hero calls $30

<font color="black">River:</font> ($118.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ??</font>

I have almost $50 left.

[Unknown Soldier]

shove

[ASC-what]

bet $10

[Minerva]

[ QUOTE ]
bet $10

[/ QUOTE ]

don't

[Casper05]

[ QUOTE ]
shove

[/ QUOTE ] but I hate your turn call. I'm either open pushing, crai, or c/f turn.