44 in SB

[SnareSound]

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well I think with our stack size, we probably get called <10% of the time

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If this is true, EASY push.

Let's say we complete and hit a set 12% of the time AND get only one caller AND get it all in every time we hit said set. Expected stack = 12% of (4085 x 2 + 1000) plus 88% (fold without set) of 3885 = 4519. If we push, we only need everyone to fold 4519/(4085+1200) ~ 86% of the time if we lose EVERY time we get called. I don't see how a call is better unless we are getting called very light (which makes losing every time an even worse assumption) or are expecting, whenever we get a set, to more than double up (not including the 1K in blinds already limped in my calc above).

Any glaring holes here? It's super conservative IMO.

Also, BB has yet to act and could be pushing with 85o here as well.

[Mingdu]

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well I think with our stack size, we probably get called <10% of the time

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If this is true, EASY push.

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Doubt that it is true ... less than 10%?

Complete and play it for set value.

[gholizad]

I think our stack size is big enough that can hurt any of the limpers so thats why I think we rarely get called in this case. I am pretty sure rate of getting called would increase dramatically if we had something like 2500 chips. Then I believe we get called >50% of the time usually from big stacks.

These numbers are just my own experience, anyone else has any other experience about the rate of getting called?

[Sherman]

Yeah. Mid-low pairs decide to play sheriff and call a shove here fairly often. I'd say at a minimum of 20% of the time...which is why I love shoving here with 99-JJ. Almost always a huge favorite against limp/callers.