Flopped Straight Flush Draw vs. Set ... advice?

RipperTEQ · #1 05-07-2007, 08:39 AM

I'm looking for advice on this hand, because I feel like it's a close play and I haven't had alot of experience with hands like this up to this point.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($1.01)
BB ($6)
UTG ($3.22)
UTG+1 ($1.39)
MP1 ($2.55)
MP2 ($2.76)
MP3 ($3.83)
CO ($2.80)
Hero ($3.51)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.02, MP2 calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.12) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.1, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1, CO folds, Hero raises to $3.49, MP2 calls $1.74 (All-In).

Turn: ($6.37) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($6.37) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $6.37

I have 14 outs, 6 from open ended straight draw (non flush), and 8 from flush draw (even not knowing my opponent's hand I always assume they hold one of my flush cards and round down 1), so at the flop I am 53% to make my hand, 47% to not. After his raise, I put him on either a set of 3s or 6s, two pair (Q3 or Q6 likeliest), bigger flush draw (not as likely), or bluff (considered this pretty low since he had played average poker to that point).

Here is my question:

1. Is this push a play I should be making at these stakes, knowing the range of hands he could have? I doubt I have much fold equity here, unless he is playing TPTK. Basically, I feel like players at this level are much less likely to fold a hand and so I lose some FE here and thus my EV drops.

With a narrow margin of 53% to make my hand, and his redraw to a full house (33% at the flop), I assume this is not a profitable play over the long run. While I do have a chance to make my straight flush and bust his full boat, this seems pretty unlikely. So without a bit of fold equity (supposing he has something like two pair instead of a set) here I feel like I'm losing money.

Is this a play that might be +EV at higher levels with a very tight image?

And finally, how do you play this hand as it went down? I'm thinking that at micro stakes alot of players are willing to stack off with their set to the straight here, and many times to the flush as well. So do I call the opening .02 bet? My goal here is to build the pot, hence the raise. I feel like that play is ok, but at that point do just call the $1 raise and see the turn rather than pushing? At that point I'm calling a .90 raise into a 1.12 pot, so my pot odds are ~ 1 to 1.25 and i'm behind 40.3% to 59.7% in the hand, although this is the worst case scenario. If I just call here, at the turn I drop to 29.39% win and 70.61% lose. So assuming he puts everything in the middle, I'm calling 1.74 into a 2.16 pot for about the same pot odds, 1 to 1.25, but now without any implied odds and bad pot odds I have to fold.

So what do you think?

juggler97531 · #2 05-07-2007, 08:54 AM

against a set you have 42% eq. FWIW

pokenum -h 4h 5h - 3d 3s -- 3h 6h qd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qd 6h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5h 4h 417 42.12 573 57.88 0 0.00 0.421
3s 3d 573 57.88 417 42.12 0 0.00 0.579

if you think you have any kind of folding equity than your shove is probably +EV.

But even if we are about even money here i don't mind folding. We doesn't have an edge here, there is no money to take from the pot. Folding 50% equity in 2BB pot is not big deal. i let it go, but i am a pussy

edit: of course i would not fold to initial 1bb bet of him. I will call his first bet and draw to my outs. then i will call again any bet on turn.

Unknown Soldier · #3 05-07-2007, 09:02 AM

op you have 15 outs, and you have like the nuts, raise more (0.3ish) and after he re-raises pushing is fine, you have little fe, but you HAVE to call down anyway, so you might aswell push now. Juggler, that's too weak, folding is just losing value, you've got a monster hand here 50%ish equity w/ the dead money is very nice.

corsakh · #4 05-07-2007, 09:11 AM

If your 100% sure he is on a set, its a poor play since he is certainly not folding this board and has a higher draw. However, in reality its pretty close because you can never put him on a set 100% of the time.

juggler97531 · #5 05-07-2007, 09:15 AM

50% is not enough here to shove.
Pot is like 0.12$ on the flop. On the river it will be 5.60 and will be raked 28c.

So actually i love to play for stacks if there was some dead money. I just can't see any here. There are like no hands against which we are favourites huge enough to make it +EV.

Then we put 10c into the pot and villain raises to 1$ saying that we are likely not ahead here. and dead money in the pot is really only 2c so far (30c - 28c rake).

So i really can't see where am i loosing value with giving it up here.

Genz · #6 05-07-2007, 09:16 AM

Your first flop raise is too small. Make it 0.22-0.24. Rest is standard. MP will reraise with Q9o here all the time on this limit even though it's full ring.

RipperTEQ · #7 05-07-2007, 09:19 AM

Ok great, thanks guys...will keep this in mind.