Flopped Straight Draw vs. Set ... advice?

RipperTEQ · #1 05-07-2007, 08:30 AM

I'm looking for advice on this hand, because I feel like it's a close play and I haven't had alot of experience with hands like this up to this point.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($1.01)
BB ($6)
UTG ($3.22)
UTG+1 ($1.39)
MP1 ($2.55)
MP2 ($2.76)
MP3 ($3.83)
CO ($2.80)
Hero ($3.51)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.02, MP2 calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.12) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.1, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1, CO folds, Hero raises to $3.49, MP2 calls $1.74 (All-In).

Turn: ($6.37) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($6.37) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $6.37

I have 14 outs, 6 from open ended straight draw (non flush), and 8 from flush draw (even not knowing my opponent's hand I always assume they hold one of my flush cards and round down 1), so at the flop I am 53% to make my hand, 47% to not. After his raise, I put him on either a set of 3s or 6s, two pair (Q3 or Q6 likeliest), bigger flush draw (not as likely), or bluff (considered this pretty low since he had played average poker to that point).

Here is my question:

1. Is this push a play I should be making at these stakes, knowing the range of hands he could have? I doubt I have much fold equity here, unless he is playing TPTK. Basically, I feel like players at this level are much less likely to fold a hand and so I lose some FE here and thus my EV drops.

With a narrow margin of 53% to make my hand, and his redraw to a full house (33% at the flop), I assume this is not a profitable play over the long run. While I do have a chance to make my straight flush and bust his full boat, this seems pretty unlikely. So without a bit of fold equity (supposing he has something like two pair instead of a set) here I feel like I'm losing money.

Is this a play that might be +EV at higher levels with a very tight image?

And finally, how do you play this hand as it went down? I'm thinking that at micro stakes alot of players are willing to stack off with their set to the straight here, and many times to the flush as well. So do I call the opening .02 bet? My goal here is to build the pot, hence the raise. I feel like that play is ok, but at that point do just call the $1 raise and see the turn rather than pushing? At that point I'm calling a .90 raise into a 1.12 pot, so my pot odds are ~ 1 to 1.25 and i'm behind 40.3% to 59.7% in the hand, although this is the worst case scenario. If I just call here, at the turn I drop to 29.39% win and 70.61% lose. So assuming he puts everything in the middle, I'm calling 1.74 into a 2.16 pot for about the same pot odds, 1 to 1.25, but now without any implied odds and bad pot odds I have to fold.

So what do you think?

Thomas Newton · #2 05-07-2007, 08:36 AM

You are posting in the wrong forum sir.

This is for Limit Holdem.

RipperTEQ · #3 05-07-2007, 08:37 AM

Whoops