Mayweather/de la Hoya

[igetbadbeat]

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I still have not bet on this fight, but am leaning on taking the FMJ to win by decision prop. I don't want to sound like I am supporting Oscar as +EV, because I am not. I just think this is a much harder fight to handicap than most people seem to think.

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You mean this fight is harder to handicap than you THINK most people seem to think. You have not yet said ONE thing that I did not know and as a 2+2er I thank you very much for your input, whether it is new or not to me. But it's harder to handicap than other people think...well you don't know what I think do you? And you don't know what I've run through my head before I make comments do you? Sometimes the beauty of more terse comments its the duality of them, help those in the know and have those not think you did not put enough effort into handicapping. Just some food for thought Bro. There is something such as a PM which I like to use for all serious discussion.

[Performify]

Post-Oak,

Thanks for the reply and the participation in this thread.

I was speaking in hyperbole through much of my post, obviously. Couple comments though:

I think the weight class moves are being over-estimated. Yes, DLH is bigger and stronger. Yes, PBF is faster and lighter. However, in my opinion most of the people betting on this fight are overestimating DLH's strength/size advantage and underestimating PBF's power. IF (yea, big if) PBF's hands don't break early, he HAS power and will do damage.

Definitely no question anyone can be beat, and I wouldn't be betting on this fight with PBF at 3:1 or 2.5:1. But I do think around -180 the fight IS plus eee vee on PBF.

I think most people on Floyd so far have been on Floyd by decision. I think that there is less value in the line by decision than straight up on Mayweather, both for this reason and because I do think there is a measurable chance that this fight ends in the latter rounds with the ref stepping in to prevent an aging DLH from eating more punches.

-P

[Post-Oak]

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But it's harder to handicap than other people think...well you don't know what I think do you?

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OK. What I really mean to say is that there are some different factors in this fight which make it really hard for ME to handicap. For example, DLH being so inactive nowadays, or FMJ fighting in a weight class he has no business being in.

I am just noticing that people are predicting an absolutely dominating performance from Mayweather, and I don't really think that is very likely. This will likely be a boring fight, with Mayweather avoiding any real fighting in favor of coasting to a decision victory by outboxing DLH.

The idea that he is gonna just straight whip DLH makes me think that people are over estimating Mayweather's considerable abilities.

[Post-Oak]

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Post-Oak,

Thanks for the reply and the participation in this thread.

I was speaking in hyperbole through much of my post, obviously. Couple comments though:

I think the weight class moves are being over-estimated. Yes, DLH is bigger and stronger. Yes, PBF is faster and lighter. However, in my opinion most of the people betting on this fight are overestimating DLH's strength/size advantage and underestimating PBF's power. IF (yea, big if) PBF's hands don't break early, he HAS power and will do damage.

Definitely no question anyone can be beat, and I wouldn't be betting on this fight with PBF at 3:1 or 2.5:1. But I do think around -180 the fight IS plus eee vee on PBF.

I think most people on Floyd so far have been on Floyd by decision. I think that there is less value in the line by decision than straight up on Mayweather, both for this reason and because I do think there is a measurable chance that this fight ends in the latter rounds with the ref stepping in to prevent an aging DLH from eating more punches.

-P

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No need to thank me (I enjoy posting), especially because you contribute as much or more than anyone, not to mention volunteering to moderate!

I do realize that you were engaging in hyperbole. You did after all say that you think Mayweather is +EV at this price, but not by a wide margin.

I just see the idea that Mayweather is going to totally take apart DLH is gaining steam, and I don't agree. I do agree with you that it is possible that Mayweather stops DLH if the ref or DLH's corner has seen enough in a hopelessly losing effort...

However, I think that most likely FMJ will win a clear decision but will by no means be dominant. I also don't really expect Oscar to ever be in serious trouble, because if Floyd is smart he will not mix it up anymore than he absolutely needs to.

I am afraid that this could be a boring fight. DLH is not the type to realize he needs to change his gameplan midstream, and can't be relied upon to force the pace even against a smaller man, so it's likely that there won't be much real action. FMJ by a pretty clear, but by no means dominating decision, is what I think the most likely of all of the different outcomes is.

For the sake of boxing, I hope I am wrong. Even a one sided beating would be better for the sport...

[Performify]

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I've made what I think will be my final bets on this card, unless I'm incorrectly anticipating the peak in the line movements.

I'm on Mayweather averaged around -180 and have juicers on Mayweather by decision averaged around +115.

I also have a very small play on Mayweather winning the fight by stoppage in the 10th, 11th or 12th rounds at +1500.

I think the line has moved down about as much as its going to. Maybe we're not quite at the peak, but I think its close. The sharps are going to start hammering Mayweather back up here shortly.


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Too early to say if I'm ultimately right or wrong, but I'm seeing PBF move the other direction a bit across the board.

Currently around -185 on most of the sites, around a 5c move from my called peak. Likewise about a 5c move backwards on Mayweather by decision, and a 50c move on that line I posted on Mayweather winning in the 10th/11th/12th.

We'll have to see tomorrow if the DLH fans come back in droves to bet Floyd back down, or if this is the start of a shift in the tide...

[Knockwurst]

speed beats strength for the most part

fmj was about 10-15 pounds lighter than Gatti and Baldomir on fight night from what I remember, and those were two of his most lopsided victories. Though dlh has more talent in his left hand than those two put together, he still fits the same mold of being slower but stronger than fmj.

fmj's most boring fights are the one's where he judges the other fighter to be close in ability to him. In that case, he's content to go into his defensive shell, and outpoint the other guy with potshots one or two at time ala Judah. Look for him to do the same thing here. This one has all the makings of a overhyped snoozer. fmj 8 rounds to 4.

One thing I'm concerned about though, seems like a lot of the "smart" money is on fmj and/or the fight going the distance. The stars are aligned for a controversial stoppage after a series of dlh patented pittypats in the 10th or the 11th with fmj ahead on the scorecards.

Anyone know if Richard Steele is refing this fight?

[Carlson411]

Nice Post Oak. I like this conversation. But what about Winky trying to price the fight 70% him 30% Floyd? And you maybe right that Winkey may give Floyd some problems with his defense, but 70/30? Thats not realistic for Floyd since he's champion and pound for pound. Jermain Taylor offered Winkey a rematch right on the spot and Winkey was mad and said he won't fight Jermain T. again. Winkey is a dodger.

In regards to Hatton, he punched an older Tzyu in his balls. Europe is known for giving there fighters a big edge in a fight. Look at what happened to Calzaghe and Manfredo? Calzaghe did beat Manfredo, but the whole world knew that fight was stopped way to early. Europe has done that over and over again. Did you see the fight with Valuev and McClien? McClien slipped after a punch and they referee called that a knock out. In the US McCline can easily repeal that as a knockout and to mention that happened in Europe. Now Hatton wants to come to the US to fight Castillo who Mayweather supposedly didn't beat the first fight and than waxed the second fight.

Shane punished Vargas the first fight. If he truly wanted payday he'd tell Vargas the hell with fight two, which was a complete embarrasment for Vargas and he would have stepped up to the plate and fought Mayweather.

In conclusion, if you put a guy in front of Mayweather he'll fight him. Im a big Mayweather fan, but I do like De La Hoya. However, I think the one and only person that'll give Mayweather a true problem, and I'll bet against Mayweather when I see that fight is Miguel Cotto. Cotto has true power and his hand is like a jackhammer. He needs a couple more fights or just to knockout Zab Judah and he can knock on Mayweather's door. For the rest of these guys they need to stop hating on Floyd.

[Carlson411]

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speed beats strength for the most part


Anyone know if Richard Steele is refing this fight?

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Oh help me and my money if Steele is doing this fight. Steele will probably pull another Medgar Evans in the 12th round.

[igetbadbeat]

because i love this community I will say that I have chosen to play both Mayweather by decision and Delahoya for the win. Originally I jokingly commented that I wanted to middle Oscar by KO and floyd by decision, but I decided that there is a REAL possibility that delahoya could take a close decision. In all honesty, besides Castillo, I believe this is the biggest test of Mayweathers career even given Oscars inactivity. Originally, I had counted out Oscar a bit because I do believe his true motivation is money and I dont think it's likely that he will come out at peak condition but the truth of the matter is that delahoya is going to press mayweather and make him work harder than we've seen him work before(maybe something like rounds 1-4 of Mayweather vs Judah). Baldomir posed next to 0 threat to mayweather but delahoya is faster and has better skills. Basically I don't believe Mayweather can hurt DLH, but he can't run circles around him like he did with baldomir and that's gonna be a problem because a close decision could easily go Oscars way, i mean this is a golden boy promotion. But in LV, i would say the judges will probably score the fight pretty fairly. Recent thoughts have just made me think these things and as a fan I hope I"m right, because a mayweather clinic would be 12 rounds of dodging and scoring weak shots. IN reality this fight really does have the potential to be a GREAT fight.


Warning: please digest what i said and for ur own opinion. I don't bet seriously anymore, have about 2K in sports betting but focus on finance and poker. As a true gambling addict, i find that the EV I get from sports betting does not cover the gamble it builds in me which screws me in both life and poker. I do however consider handicapping a sport of sorts and want to remain active in it.

[whitepotatoe]

Mayweather's down to -175 at bodog.