Lakisha a good buy right now? - Page 2

Quadstriker · #11 05-04-2007, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is absolutely no reason Lakisha can't win it all.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 Reasons actually. Melinda, Blake, and Jordan.

thing85 · #12 05-04-2007, 05:19 PM

You guys are being a little rough on myname. However small, image IS a factor. Looking good doesn't win it for you and looking bad doesn't lose it for you. Fan bases held equal, if two contestants have equally solid performances one week but one appears more attractive than the other, that one will be the one to pick up more votes.

No, it's not a huge factor, but it is one (of several). It IS a big part of the reason Haley and Antonella lasted as long as they did.

thing85 · #13 05-04-2007, 05:20 PM

Okay, myname basically defended himself with the same thing I wrote, so ignore my post.

mynamewastaken · #14 05-04-2007, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So I think the percentage of people who vote mindlessly for a particular contestant no matter how they sing, is not as large as you think it is. It boils down to how they perform from here on in, and yes Lakisha may have less margin for error but it's not a foregone conclusion she's gone next week either. It all depends on how she sings. At 19-1 I think she's a good low-risk/high potential reward longshot wager.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may not be giving the voting public enough credit, but I just have a hard time believing that those people who powerdialed for M, J or B for 4 hours two weeks in a row (and those are the voters that actually count imo) will suddenly change their minds based on how their fav sings next week. I also believe this effect becomes more pronounced towards the end of the show, when more people's minds are made up and there are fewer alternatives to choose from.

I agree with the 2nd part of the quote. I think L is the fav to go home next week, but she is NOT the preclusive fav. As I said, I wouldn't be surprised if it was anybody but B.

mynamewastaken · #15 05-04-2007, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, myname basically defended himself with the same thing I wrote, so ignore my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha thanks thing. I really wasn't trying to start a fight, and I realize everyone has their own opinions and everybody is right in their own way (except for me, who has successfully missed predicting the bootee(s) like 5 weeks in a row now).

I'm honestly surprised the attractiveness comment was the sticky wicket. It certainly wasn't intended to be the centerpiece of my post, and if I had known I would have left it out, as I think the same reasoning works even without considering attractiveness whatsoever.

thing85 · #16 05-04-2007, 05:29 PM

One thing that sucks (this is a side note) is that WSEX locks the market from the time the show begins Tuesday until after the results Wednesday. This means that even if Melinda bombs and DI predicts her to go home, none of us can sell her. Furthermore, let's say she gets booted - WSEX opens up the market on Thursday (like they did last week) and Melinda is already at 0 then?

Is there no longer a way to "day trade" AI? (besides InTrade)

GoRedBirds · #17 05-04-2007, 05:38 PM

I really think she's more than a 19-1 dog to win this thing. I don't know if I'd buy her at 30-1. She's gone next week.

thing85 · #18 05-04-2007, 05:49 PM

I have to agree with you GRB, but it's been a few weeks now where she "should've" gone. Then again, Phil wouldn't die off either, but did eventually despite some decent performances.

pokerplayer28 · #19 05-04-2007, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really think she's more than a 19-1 dog to win this thing. I don't know if I'd buy her at 30-1. She's gone next week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree too 19-1? Ill pass, according to BM shes 45% to survive this week (watch that line move to -400 before the show starts) If she survives she'll be about 30% to survive next week and grannymae said she'd be about 25-30% to win if she makes the finale
.45*.3*.275=3.7%
so shes somewhere in the 3-5% range. which oddly enough would be her price if not for vegan.

Oh and this is just estimates to get an idea of her chance of winning I believe if she makes the finale she'll be the favorite because for that miracle to happen she would have had to belt out some amazing songs from now till then.

TheVegan · #20 05-04-2007, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is absolutely no reason Lakisha can't win it all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. NO reason she can't win? I can think of many. You may be right that there is some (probably very marginal) value in buying Lakisha, but you're out of you're mind to say that there's no reason she can't win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said there is no reason she CAN'T win. I didn't say there is no reason she WON'T win. There is a huge difference between the two. What I said is correct unless of course she has zero percent chance of winning.