Lakisha a good buy right now?

[revots33]

I think so. I just bought some on Intrade at 5. I don't think she can beat Melinda BUT she sings way better than Jordin and Blake so I'm figuring I'm getting about 4-1 odds on her outlasting those two. I think her odds are better than that.

This does not seem to be like last season where certain contestants locked in steady fan bases. This season it's a week-to-week contest based on the performances that week. Lakisha was great last week and has the potential to be great again.

I admit Lakisha needs help in the form of bad performances by Blake and Jordin. But Lakisha also is the only true underdog in this competition, she's got the best backstory and I think more people might be rooting for her than we think.

[thing85]

You make a good case for her - I have to agree that she definitely has a shot to outlast Blake or Jordin. I think with the elimination of Chris, however, Blake is a lock for the top 3. With Chris's comment on the elimination show, something along the lines of "I would go home for this guy - we're best friends," teen girls' hearts melted all around the country. Blake is picking up 90% of Chris's votes, for whatever that's worth. Combine this with the fact that he probably also increased his fan base via other sources with (arguably) the best performance of the night.

If Lakisha beats anyone at this point, it's Jordin. I've said it already, but a stellar Lakisha performance combined with a miserable Jordin performance is probably the primary recipe for a Jordin elimination.

[TheVegan]

Well of course you all know what my answer is. It's a difinitive YES!!! I think there is great value even if you are buying and holding until it's all over. There is absolutely no reason Lakisha can't win it all. 19-1 odds on her? Hell I took all I could get on April 13th at 9-1 and she has survived 3 more weeks and now you can get 19-1? This is just insane. After she survived this week I went to MB and put in an offer to take 10-1 and it didn't get filled fortunately. I took down the offer just before I went to sleep. The next day I get 19-1. What a steal. I may lose but this is one of the best bets I have ever had.

[mynamewastaken]

Vegan the reason L dropped from 9-1 to 19-1 despite having less competition now than she did before is because, in my experience, one's odds of winning the contest have little to do with market share distributions and everything to do with perceived strength, vote splitting, and prebuilt fanbases. Given the current situation, it makes no difference if L is up against 1 opponent, 3 opponents, or 20... her chances of winning are simply not very good. Few would argue she is the least attractive of the remaining contestants, and she has been in the b2 before (probably more than once, but definitely at least once) which is the kiss of death in this competition... remember Bo?

I also personally believe her position has very little to do with the quality of her next performance, as most of the people who are tuning in at this point have already predetermined who they're going to vote for. Further, she will have difficulty staking a demographic because she is up against 2 other women, both of them black, both of whom sing the same style of music she does, and neither of whom have been in the bottom 2 (as far as we know).

Her position is actually quite similar to Phil's... he was straggling towards the bottom for a while, and by the time he started giving good performances semi-consistently (country week?) it was already too late for him.

That said, although I personally would want an M-J finale I'm almost positive it will be M-B or J-B, with an outside chance of L-B (that being the only way I could see B winning). As I've said, L is far from a 'lock' to go home next week (hell, I've been predicting her to go home for over a month now) and if she can hold out one more week her sell price will likely make purchasing her now a good call.

If L gets pimpspot next week, which I certainly don't see as out of the question after the Simon-Gargoyle kiss, I think she has a greater than 75% chance at making the top 3. B is the only one who has a pass next week, as both the only dude left and the highlight of last week's show, he should be safe. Therefore, I would guess that whomever goes 1st (unless it's B, in which case whomever goes 2nd) will be booted regardless of the quality of the performance or judge's comments. I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see M pull a Latoya, for example.

All this is to say I would give L approximately a 25% chance of surviving next week (almost all of that coming from the 1/4 chance of her getting pimpspot) and a 5% chance of winning the competition, which makes 19-1 about right for the longhaul but opens up the possibility of a short term +EV proposition. BOL to you, but I'll be sweating it out for one more week, as I shorted L at the start of the season at -300 and I'm in pretty deep on J, plus I have LLs against L for all 3 of the other remaining contestants... so I'm REALLY REALLY REALLY hoping L goes home next week, but I bought a little of her as short-term insurance.

[thing85]

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There is absolutely no reason Lakisha can't win it all.

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Wow. NO reason she can't win? I can think of many. You may be right that there is some (probably very marginal) value in buying Lakisha, but you're out of you're mind to say that there's no reason she can't win.

[GrannyMae]

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Few would argue she is the least attractive of the remaining contestants

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from someone who i thought understood the show and its history, this must be one of the most irrelevant comments i have seen.

i am certainly not saying lakisha will win this thing, but your factoid is beyond worthless.

[revots33]

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I also personally believe her position has very little to do with the quality of her next performance, as most of the people who are tuning in at this point have already predetermined who they're going to vote for.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the part I disagree with. Everyone thought she was a goner this past week, but she sang great and obviously got enough votes to beat out 2 other contestants. I think it was her great performance that saved her, not that she had a larger fan base to begin with than Chris or Phil.

Jordin was middle of the pack (at least in terms of wagering interest, and I'd suspect in votes also) until "I Who Have Nothing". Blake's been up near the top, then down in the bottom 3, and generally all over the place due to his inconsistent performances.

So I think the percentage of people who vote mindlessly for a particular contestant no matter how they sing, is not as large as you think it is. It boils down to how they perform from here on in, and yes Lakisha may have less margin for error but it's not a foregone conclusion she's gone next week either. It all depends on how she sings. At 19-1 I think she's a good low-risk/high potential reward longshot wager.

[Shrug]

Having bounced around a few of the Idol forums, I have seen a large fan base for CAKE (Chris & Blake)....and I can only assume they were splitting their votes between the two. Now that Chris is gone, Blake will definitely pick up his votes. It remains to be seen if those voting, say, 25 for C and 25 for B will now vote 50 for B.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Few would argue she is the least attractive of the remaining contestants

[/ QUOTE ]

from someone who i thought understood the show and its history, this must be one of the most irrelevant comments i have seen.

i am certainly not saying lakisha will win this thing, but your factoid is beyond worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

People have been arguing the attractiveness angle since the season started (with Melinda too) and I don't get it. it's not a beauty contest. Lakisha was the huge favorite on WSEX after her performance of "And I am Telling You" back in the round of 24. Did America just have beer goggles on for one week? Or is it that most people are voting based on the performance, not the looks?

If not I guess we'd better call Haley and Antonella back and tell Melinda and Lakisha to go home.

[mynamewastaken]

I may have been unclear. I'm not saying being attractive is a prereq to winning this thing, but certainly hotness (especially ESPECIALLY among the females) is helpful, and has gotten many contestants (McPhee? Pickler?) farther than they deserved to go on voice and performance ability alone.

I'm not saying L can't win because she's unattractive. I'm saying she can't even use her looks to her advantage. Just one more strike against her.

I believe that, all things being equal, people will favor the hot girl over the not so hot one. Not saying M or J are showstoppers or anything but certainly L's weight works against her in a way that Reuben's weight never did. Not saying it's fair, but it is what it is.

In all my conversations with people who watch the show for fun, I have never heard anyone refer to L as anything but "the fat one" or "the ugly one". When I bring up the fact that M seems to have no neck, or that J looks like she could play in the NFL, the response is invariably something like "yeah, but L is REALLY bad." Personally I think it's madness to think this doesn't work against her at least to some extent, although the fact that she's made it this far obviously proves that looks are not the main deciding factor.

Anyway, didn't mean for this to become a derail on analyzing the appearance of the remaining contestants. You might believe looks are a complete non-factor but I respectfully disagree.