Derby Picks

[MikeyEdge]

I loooove Street Sense in this race. I agree that he'll probably be the chalk by post time. He's got the highest Beyer Speed in the field (108). Which was ran at Churchill Downs to win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths. His previous race to that was on PolyTrack, same as going into Derby. His home track is Churchill, so that should elimate some Derby jitters. I would through out his last race because it was ran on PolyTrack and a horse drifted into him twice down the stretch. Not to mention he's a Dual Qualifier is you're into dosage. And he's got a great post position. Post position doesn't matter a ton in the Derby, but at least he's not sitting at 1 or 20.

For Place I have Scat Daddy. His Beyer Speeds have been increasing every race, and I think he's poised to hit 100 this race. Pletcher has his best chance with this horse. Edgar Prado riding is a plus. He's won his last two races which were both at 1 1/8 mile. Both of which were Pletcher's first races training the horse. I also love his Fountain of Youth races where he closed from 4 lengths to win by a nose in the final quarter. Also a Dual Qualifier.

For Show I have Nobiz Like Shobiz. I'm not crazy that he doesn't have a triple digit Beyer Speed, but I don't think thats going to factor heavily on this race since most horses fall in that category. He's won 3 of his last 4, with a great showing in the G1 Wood Memorial. And 3 of his last 4 were run at 1 1/8 mile. He's also a Dual Qualifier.

So for my main play I have:
Trifecta: 7-14 w/ 7-14-12-16 w/ 7-14-12-16
(Street Sense-7, Scat Daddy-14, Nobiz-12, Circle Quay-16)

As far as Curlin goes, I stayed away from him in most of my Tri's. His Beyer Speeds are great, especially his last race, but he just isn't proven. Even though he did win by 10, it was a G2, and there was really nobody in that race. I think he can't beat all of this historical data on how this horse is coming in to the Derby. His other races were G3 which wasn't anything special and his Maiden race which is uselss. He's never raced in a G1 and doesn't have the experience to handle a 20 horse field, especially when his breaking from the 2 hole. Andy Beyer seems to hate this horse, and I'm going to have to stick with him. I still used him in a couple Tri-Boxes just in case.

Cowtown got a perfect trip in a week field in the Illinois Derby. I would pass.

Hard Spun I was looking at for a while, but decided to pass. I don't think he's going to be able to handle the distance. He only has one race at 1 1/8, which was on PolyTrack. He could be a surprise horse.

I like Tiago a lot, but he's only got one real race to his name. But in that race he showed that he could handle some traffic and came back from 9 lengths to win the Santa Anita G1 posting a 100 Beyer Speed. I used him at the bottom of some of my exotics.

Circle Quay has a good shot. He had a great last race, which was Pletcher's first race training him. He posted a 102 after being back 12 lengths. I used him in some of my exotics as well.

I liked Any Given Saturday before the PPs were drawn. I think he's going to have trouble coming from 18. Not too mention he seems to fade at the end of every race. He's going to get used up early and fade badly late.

Most of the other horses I think you can throw out. It seems like there only about 7 real contenders in this race. But of course anything can happen on Derby day.

Here are my other picks if you're interested. Congrats if you've read this far. I usually don't do Superfecta's but I feel I have a good shot the way this year's field is shaping up.

1. $2 Tri: 7-14 w/ 7-14-12-16 w/ 7-14-12-16 ($24)
2. $1 Tri Box: 7-12-2 ($6)
3. $1 Tri Box: 15-16-2 ($6)
4. $1 Tri Box: 7-12-16 ($6)
5. $1 Tri Box: 7-15-14 ($6)
6. $1 Tri Box: 12-16-15 ($6)
7. $1 Super: 7-14 w/ 7-14-12-16 w/ 7-14-12-16-15
w/ 7-14-12-16-15 ($36)
8. $20 Win on 7 ($20)
9. $1 Exacta: 7-14-12 w/ 7-14-12-16 ($9)

-MikeyEdge

[Methodz]

I've browsed through here and didn't see any discussion about this so I figured I'd ask...

On one of the books I use, there is a free $10 bet on whether or not the race will be over 2 minutes and 2 seconds. Yeah, I know $10 isn't much, but it gives 1-1 odds and its free so I figured I'd bet on it for the hell of it.

So, any thoughts on the over 2min2sec? Thanks.

[Quanah Parker]

Which horses will benefit from rain/mud?

The forecast for the Derby from NOAA-
Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

[soflat]

I think it's wide open and don't see what's so great about any of the favorites. So I'm sticking with my futures on Scat Daddy, Sam P, and Zanjero. Plus I'll add Hard Spun if he is really 15-1 or better.

[funkytown]

After reviewing the form, the pick for me is Street Sense. He's had three grade 1's, bounced from his previous high Beyer and damn near took Dominican in the Blue Grass anyway, has a great post position, and his jockey has led him to a victory of a 14 horse field in the BC Juvenile at CD last year. Nafzger has this horse ready. One thing I've learned from a very well known trainer is that Grade 1 horses stay Grade 1. Scat Daddy, Tiago, & NoBiz are all of the same ilk. I happen to like Street Sense in this spot. Good Luck guys.

[Bishop22]

According to pedigree, Saturday and CC should benefit from the slop, Hard Spun @ 413 Tomlinson is boarder-line.

[phishguy]

Well heres what I played...
Pick 4 starting race 7
5 / 1 2 / 2 5 6 8 9 / 2 6 7 8 12 14 16 $70 bet for $1

[Bishop22]

[ QUOTE ]
Well heres what I played...
Pick 4 starting race 7
5 / 1 2 / 2 5 6 8 9 / 2 6 7 8 12 14 16 $70 bet for $1

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your horses in the 8th and 9th. For your sake I hope I am wrong about AZ in the 7th.

[Irieguy]

HardSpun to win (main ticket)
Sedgefield to win (longshot for fun)

Then I'll key HS and StSense with CQ, SD, and Nobiz for some shots at a tri and/or super.

I'll go on record for my superfecta prediction:

1. HardSpun
2. Street Sense
3. Scat Daddy
4. Circular Quay

I hit the winner ticket and tri with Smarty/Lion/Imperialism in 2004, and while I don't think HS is quite the horse Smarty was, I like the rest of my supergroup much more this year.

I'm looking forward to watching this race as the field seems about as level as ever in the past few years.

Irieguy

[NajdorfDefense]

19 of 20 Horses are Dual Qualifiers, I think. Doesn't mean anything much anyway - see Charismatic, Smarty Jones, etc.

Hard Spun upon going from 1mi to 1.125mi went from 95 to 101 Beyer. That should be a plus.

Agree totally on Scat Daddy, hoping his odds get better.

StSense's Beyer is from 6+ months ago, which makes it fairly useless, imho. You should be concerned his Beyer dropped from 102 to 93 upon going from 1/16 to 1.125mi.
Esp for the post-time [possible] favorite. No horse has run that slow a Beyer and won in many, many years in their final prep. On average, a Derby winner's final prep shows a 3-pt improvement, pointing to recent form as ultra-important.
SDaddy up 3, CCat up 10, HSpun up 6, Nobiz up 3, Quay up 25, Tiago, Curlin.
In fact, out of the last 58 horses who's Beyer dropped >2pts going into Derby, none have won. Yikes. I don't believe in the BC jinx, but this one makes a lot of sense to me. StSense's best Beyer was 3 starts ago.