Simple flop question

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the key is the backdoor low to this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]Hello Flavius - Honestly, backdoor draws don't add that much. 64/990 = about 6.5% nut low plus
96/990 = about 9.5% 2nd nut low.
And low is always for half the pot max.[ QUOTE ]
I think the best play here is to put in a small raise

[/ QUOTE ]This is a limit game. Any raise would be exactly one small bet. And then what?

<ul type="square">If SB folds, all is fine an dandy. But if SB calls the situation is far from clear.

And if SB re-raises, are we going to have Hero fold? Hero will get the beejeebers kicked out of him playing like that in a limit ring game against opponents with any degree of skill - unless he wants to play as tight as a clam - and then he won't lose much but he won't win much either and limit ring game play will become too boring to bear.[/list]Buzz

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Tex - But Hero is not really getting five to one because the betting isn’t over after the second betting round. The bet on the second betting round is only the first (and cheapest) installment on a two or three payment plan. Are we going to have Hero fold if he doesn’t make a flush or the nut low? If so, it’s a two payment plan. Are we going to have Hero continue all the way to the showdown? If so, it’s a three payment plan.

If Hero continues to the showdown, as he must to win anything, then he henceforth will be putting in five bets rather than one, in order to win nine bets (the five already in the pot plus four to be henceforth contributed by SB.

Put another way, you’re not considering reverse implied pot odds. I think you should.

Nice sims, by the way. I was going to run my own, but I like your choices better than mine would have been.

Let’s assume neither of the two who have folded held an eight. Then the probability SB was dealt an eight is 1-C(35,4)/C(37,4) = about 21%. But since SB bet before anyone else had acted, there is actually a greater probability SB has at least an eight (assuming SB is aware of the danger of possibly betting into trip eights or better).

Sure, SB could be trying to steal the pot here. SB could have almost anything and be figuring that half the time nobody else will have an eight or better. 1-C(43,12)/C(45,12) = about 47%. then add probability of a pair of nines and you’re very close to 49% or about half.

Thus from SB’s perspective, a bluff into this pot after this flop has a reasonable enough chance to succeed to be worthwhile to attempt. SB has “the right of first bluff,” and may have exercised it here.

And there’s really nothing Hero should do about it. Goes against the grain to let someone get away with a possible bluff, but without at least trip eights, with just a flush draw plus bare 2nd nut backdoor low draw (plus trips, two pair, and one pair possibilities, albeit poor possibilities), I think Hero’s best play is to fold.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz you make me smile. One line in particular. I'm sure you were rolling your eyes when you saw my sims.

Tu che.

-Tex