5/2 Mavs @ Warriors

[kaboshedx]

and to passthesuga...to say that -2.5 Mavs is a "lock" is ridiculous, I mean I know there is already a ton of square thinking in this thread but please lets try not to make it that blatent.

Also to point to the fact that joepublic is betting on the team with the best reg season record at -2.5 is far from valid reasoning of backing up your pick.

[New001]

Am I the only one who thinks the only value here is in the under? If I was forced on a side I'd take GS plus the points.

[iggymcfly]

I'm not going to try to say definitively where the value is here, as I'm obviously a little biased, but I will say this: the squares are definitely on Golden State. Every person I've seen who never watches or bets a basketball game until the playoffs thinks that the Warriors are going to work the Mavs in Oakland.

[mosta]

[ QUOTE ]
...
1. This game is a win or go home for the Mavs
2. The Mavs are clearly the better team
3. The Mavs are capable of winning long stretches of games in a row, they proved this all season
3. The Mavs have the league MVP in their line up who will be super confident following his Game 5 heroics.
4. The Warriors will be feeling the pressure of failing to close out a 9 point lead with 3:15 on the clock.
5. (MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IMO) Playoff basketball is different to the regular season. The class teams step up when they need to. Warriors winning 6 of last 8 or whatever is totally irrelevant IMO.

... Because when the series is on the line, the have the players who will make the big plays (and the free throws).

...

[/ QUOTE ]


After watching this series, I completely fail to see how Dallas is "clearly" the better between these two teams. Against all these philosophical reasons why Dallas should win, I weigh the games. Game 5 showed absurd overvaluing of Dallas in the markets. I loved betting GS before Game 5 at 18% and I doubled my bet at 6% during the Mavs run (but I'm purely small and recreational/by whim). And after being bitterly disappointed by Dallas last year repeatedly, I think they have already amply disproven any talk about their in effable championship caliber.

PS as for the "silly American" lines--I don't get at all why you wouldn't quote in percentages: the market for Dallas moneyline is 57% at 57.5% (small size).

[dankhank]

i can't bet on dallas because this number is as big as it could possibly open. it hasn't moved, even though it seems like everyone should be on golden state. squares on them because the warriors have been on fire, sharps on them because they are freerolling golden state at this point. if i can get a number on golden state that beats pinnacle's lean on them then i will play it, otherwise, game is a pass. whenever an nba game is unclear, the best thing for me to do is pass. the books picked the right number opening this at 3 i guess, and there is dallas money out there.

[rush66]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks the only value here is in the under? If I was forced on a side I'd take GS plus the points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo!!!

Also as far as percentages go..54% on Dallas and 46% on GS (spreads) 61% on Dallas ML. I am playing the under for sure. If I had to choose though, Id probably take Golden State because this arena will be as similar to a college basketball arena as you can get in the nba(the last two games were ridiculous), so there may be a .5 or 1 point edge in value for their side.

[passthesuga]

[ QUOTE ]
when staring down the barrell the Mavs produced? They were down 3-1 in a playoff series, they did not produce - they got lucky in those last 3 minutes as the Warriors handed them the game and Dirk finally sunk some fadeaways.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe so, but it is a new game tonight. In my opinion placing too much emphasis on Games 4 and 5 will lead you to the poor house in Game 6. The psychological set up in this match, playoff experience etc etc are important factors.

Some of you call this "square" thinking. LOL. I think I see what you're saying, but ignoring those factors is just willful ignorance. Game 5 was ONE GAME. IMO the Mavs led by 20 and dozed off. This happens in BBall all the time. It shouldn't have happened in such an important game, but did. Lesson learned. Move on to Game 6.

I place far more emphasis on a host of other far more important factors that will see the Mavs lead at the half by 5+ and never be headed.

Rather be a square winner than a genius loser........enjoy the game, should be a good (but not a close) one.

PTS

[kaboshedx]

HUH? Alright thread over.

[passthesuga]

[ QUOTE ]
HUH? Alright thread over.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess when you come to this board, you have to expect personal attacks, as well as attacks on your opinion. Look, I'm comfortable with my reasoning, and very comfortable with my 4 unit investment on the Mavs.

I just wish we could discuss things around here without being so judgemental and somewhat personal. As well, your last post is simply trying to belittle me and my method of thinking on this game. Just because it is different to yours does not make it wrong, worse, or for that matter, square. Just different. I could just as easily argue your thinking is square, do you see why?

Remind me not to head back here for any constructive discussion. I guess it doesn't bother people like you anyway, because I'm a "square", you intellectual giant you.

Peace

PTS

[kaboshedx]

huh? no I heard you the first time. you'd rather be a square winner I get it we're cool.

and btw I did not place more emphasis on games 4 and 5, I placed emphasis on every matchup the Mavs and GS has had this season.