Derby Picks

[Sluss]

Does anyone else question Curlin' picking the 2 slot instead of one of the outside gates? The horse has never been in traffic before and will certainly get bumped around that far inside. Is it really that scary to get caught wide on the first turn with a horse that is suposed to have all of this speed?

I think Street Sense could be the favorite by the time this goes off. I like Nobiz's post, I'm not sure I like showing up this late in the week though. I'm starting to come around on Hard Spun. I'm starting to put together some plays in my mind.

[Holybull]

Here are my official picks. They say it's looking like rain Saturday, but my top choices shouldn't be hurt by a wet track.

Based on $300 to spend on the race:

$80 win Street Sense
$120 win Nobiz Like Shobiz
$1 tri Nobiz/Street Sense over all
$10 exacta wheel SS/Nobiz over AGS, Dominican, Scat Daddy
$2 Oaks/Derby Double Cotton Blossom w/ SS and Nobiz

Good luck! Let's see everyone else's plays. Should be a great race.

[NajdorfDefense]

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I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

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Hard Spun is indeed #1 pedigree, only marginally ahead of Saturday and CC. HDW data won't be out til Friday I'll post in-depth and mention if there pedigree numbers differ from Tomlinson.

The thing about pedigree is it only really applies when horses haven't been through a given distance or situation. That kind of applies to the Derby since that last furlong is big, but I think the races they have run to this point are more important. ...

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Yeah, and he's 5 of 6 lifetime. That's better than 90% of the horses in the race. Hence my confusion.

Of course, anything can and will happen in this race. I'm not saying he's a lock or anything, for sure, not like Smarty was teh lock of teh interweb.

[NajdorfDefense]

Shouldn't at least one of your top picks have a win, or even a race, in the mud if you think it's going to rain?

Just a thought, honestly not trying to be a wiseass.

[Holybull]

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Shouldn't at least one of your top picks have a win, or even a race, in the mud if you think it's going to rain?

Just a thought, honestly not trying to be a wiseass.

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Fair point. To be honest, I have had more success not adjusting my selections for wet tracks than trying to figure out which horses benefit. Just to keep it simple I guess. I do reduce my bet sizes. In 2004 it rained and the race remained formful. I believe Smarty Jones and Lion Heart were the top 2 betting choices.

I can't hold it against Nobiz that he hasn't run on an off track before. Without a doubt, rain would help Hard Spun's chances.

[NajdorfDefense]

IIRC, Cliff's Edge was the top choice right before post, Lion Heart was not 2nd. And Smarty had run in wet or slop before, but I'dve to 2blcheck.

Go For Gin was a very easy pick for me at 8-1 in 1994, 2 races in rain, 2 wins. Rain on Derby Day....it was raining money, for me at least! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bill C]

Where is "Myturn2raise?" He always had interesting comments about races.
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
bc

[rush66]

Naj, you are really starting to convince me on this horse. What does everyone think about the trainer and jockey angle here. I mean scat daddy has prado and pletcher but got just an OK post.

[MacGuyV]

Sam P ftw...anyone? no? maybe?

[NajdorfDefense]

Pino's a veteran jockey, been leading winner at Laurel, Pimlico, Delaware, been riding since the 1970s.
Breeder also succeeded with Creme Fraiche, who ran 2nd fastest Belmont of alltime behind Big Red.

I like Scat Daddy as well. Esp if it rains.

Again, horse has had 6 weeks off, and people are worried about the very fast time on Monday [Barbaro and Smarty also ran the best warmups Derby Week, but not nearly as fast.]
The main thing is, the odds are terrific. At 15-1 or worse, an absolute steal. Every horse in this race has weaknesses, they are lightly raced, no great Beyer's save one by StSense, and no horse has won off 2 preps since 1915, and he couldn't even beat Dominican last time out, who is another live longshot.

Give me great breeding, a solid vet jock [like Stu Elliott], a horse that's won 5 of 6, and big odds for this race, and I'll take it every time, Beyer 95 at 1 mile and stepped up big to 101 for 1+1/8th.

That's just how I think. Barbaro was 5 for 5 and Smarty 7 for 7, and somehow people outsmarted themselves even so, don't know why.

StSense, Curlin, Quay are all good horses, if they win I won't be surprised [okay with Curlin's post I will be].
And then there's the years a horse like Giacomo wins...with no prior victories...at 50-1!