50 NL: Test Your Handreading Skills

[CaptVimes]

Well all of you are deeper stacked + there is the likelyhood that the hand could be multi-way if CO calls so his calling range could be alot higher than what people think. It could include most smallpocket pairs, AK, AQ likely suited and some other suited connectors. With his preflop Agg stats he's re-raising JJ+. How small a sample is your stats?

Flop could be stack a donk, I have a monster draw please re-raise me so I can shove or like you said testing the waters.

River he either has you beat bad or nothing and hopes you can't beat a flush. I think a marginal hand will try to show down cheap.

Close?

[CaptVimes]

Question. You said he's thinking about your hand. How aggro have you been? How light have you been re-raising?

[mrw8419]

Would you have been more likely to call a half pot river bet? I think a push is greater ev than a smaller bet, and with a boat I'd be shoving the river. Villain knows you have trip aces, would he be crazy enough to try to push you off of that hand?

[ButItWasSuited]

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Question. You said he's thinking about your hand. How aggro have you been? How light have you been re-raising?

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I've been repopping more than the average 50 NL'er which is to say he probably thinks my range is wider than JJ/QQ/KK/AA.
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Villain knows you have trip aces

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If this is the case, do you really think he thinks my kicker is a 10 or worse? If not, then the odds are good that I have the nuts/2nd nuts.

[Chomp]

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Chomp:

What does he expect to get called with on the river?

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Primarily A's that can't let go.

But looking at it again, I get your point: AK, AQ, AJ are a huge part of our range by the time we get to the end, so villain's move is pretty dumb without AK or AJ himself.

And my initial thought of him having JJ probably doesn't make sense actually - he's 3betting that on turn and c/c river.

Hmmmmmmm.....sheesh, I think he must have AK here and checked turn fearing we have AJ. Our range can only really be AJ+ here.

This s*** hurts my head.

[Dunkman]

a) I don't know what his PF range is because cold-calling a reraise in the SB is retarded and should happen exactly never. I'll assume for sake of dicussion he has a good hand.

b) It could mean I have KK and want to see if you have an A, I hit the flop, I hit the flop really hard and I need bets on all 3 streets to stack you. Calling his flop bet is fine I see very little value in raising, and folding is way too weak/tight.

c) His river pushing range is 99% hands that beat you and 1% bluff. You chop with AQ, lose to AK and AJ, JJ, KK, and a flush. To call you are saying he has QQ, TT, or AT like 30% of the time. There's no way that's the case here.

[yo5ty]

AJ, JJ, or a flush.

The check call makes me think it may have been a flush, particularly around QJs, based on the earlier action.

The more I read over this hand, the more I feel that is a fold situation.

[CaptDrew]

Honestly, based on what I've seen over the last couple of days, I'd say K6o.

[mrw8419]

If he's always going to be calling a river shove, why shouldn't he shove it in himself and try to get a call from other aces.

AK