5/2 Mavs @ Warriors

kaboshedx · #1 05-02-2007, 11:03 PM

Am I a fat square for reeeally liking Warriors +130 here?

GS missed so many layups in Game 5, playing on homecourt I feel they'll close in the final minutes, and the Warriors seem to have no respect for Dallas and will continue to just slam the ball down their throat. There's my analysis, I also have GS -108 on the series.

thoughts?

Artdogg · #2 05-02-2007, 11:24 PM

The only thing i question is the mental state of GS after losing a game that way, but too much stock is probably put into things like that. Dallas hasn't shown me anything to prove they can win in that arena.

MyPetTurtle · #3 05-03-2007, 12:58 AM

I disagree.

There is huge value taking the Mavs at 1.73 - 1.75 on Betfair (ummm I think that's -133 in silly American odds). This line is pretty strange considering the Mavs were 1.6 in game 4 (@GS).

You mention that Golden State missed some layups in game 5, but conversely you could say that the Warriors managed to hit 16 three-pointers and still lost by 6.

GS have played incredibly well against a Dallas team that has been sluggish. Golden State's shooters are streaky and have been hitting at an unsustainable rate in this series so far. Baron Davis shoots 30% for 3PFGs but is shooting over 50% for the series. I would not be surprised if the Warriors implode in this game. Dirk Nowitzki is an elite level player who is due for a monster game after finding some form in the final minutes of game 5.

The Mavs won 67/82 games this regular season. They are a far superior team. The fact that the Mavs have not won in GS this year is concerning but I cannot see how you expect the Warriors to win this game more than 1/3 times.

MyPetTurtle · #4 05-03-2007, 01:03 AM

Also the Warriors have no experience in winning big games. Stephen Jackson is borderline crazy and cannot be relied upon.

Artdogg · #5 05-03-2007, 01:25 AM

Dallas is the better team of course, but that doesn't change the fact that GS has been a complete nightmare matchup for them for years now. They have a few good sized freak guards who the Mavs can't guard (especially Baron) and they can't exploit them inside. Also needless to say they have done one hell of a job on Dirk. Your biggest argument is the Warr's lack of experience and it showed when they weren't able to close out the Mavs in game 5 (they definitely should have.) I don't think that's enough to make the Mavs your "lock" bet...it says a lot that they barely slipt by in game 5 at home. This is a pretty rare situation.

kaboshedx · #6 05-03-2007, 01:26 AM

Turtle you make alot of good points. But like Art says, what has Dallas shown me? They've shown me that they cannot defend GS, they've shown me they looks slow compared to GS, Dirk has been average, the Mavs have not put together a good game in GS.

These variables seem to be more qualitative than quantitative I know, but if the 3's arent droppin for GS they've shown they can get to the bucket. AND defend the Mavs, I just don't see the Warriors losing this game.

ThankgodforRB · #7 05-03-2007, 02:31 AM

This is coming from a die-hard Mavs fan that laid $1k on the Warriors before the series started, so I feel like I'm pretty balanced here.

I've watched this team all year and really loved them for most of it, but when the matchup was finally set I was pretty nervous. After watching the first 5 games, I'm extremely nervous about game 6. I am shocked at the respect the Mavs continue to get from books/bettors in this series. I've been trying to lay off of the Warriors in individual games, but I've been shocked by most of the lines in this series.

Tomorrow is another one I find hard to pass up. There's pretty much zero evidence other than the 67 wins and #1 vs. #8 seeding to justify it. Those numbers obviously mean something, but at this point in a series (with regular season results to back it up) I think one has to start looking at the results of the head-to-head matchups as bigger inputs. That's not even mentioning the fact that calling this Warriors team an 8 seed or looking at regular season win differential is really misleading since they've only been together for a portion of the season.

Besides the fact that there are obvious matchup issues for the Mavs, I really don't like the psychological aspects of this series for the Mavs. Clearly (depsite what the Mavs are saying about the pressure being on them now) the Warriors are being aggressive and showing no real fear of the Mavs. They are talking a lot of trash and the Mavs are mostly just taking it. I see no (I hate this term but it fits) swagger coming from the Mavs, which is always a bad sign. The Mavs seem to be (understandably) nervous and playing a little scared, as it would obviously be a huge letdown for a 67-win team to be out in Rd 1. I just don't like the way this is setting up psychologically at all for the Mavs in game 6.

I'm not saying the Mavs can't win by any means, but in trying to see the situation objectively I really don't like their chances. If I was setting a true line myself, I'd say something more like GS -180 for game 6. I'll be pulling for the Mavs like crazy tomorrow and hopefully attending game 7 on Saturday (which would quickly move near the top of my sporting event experiences list I'm sure), but I don't like our chances tomorrow. If I'm unfortunately right about that, I'll be taking home a nice little consolation prize at least (thinly-veiled brag). :-p

ImNew · #8 05-03-2007, 02:46 AM

GS is apparently weak in the paint area because they are primarily a shooting team like Phoenix, however Dallas really had no one to exploit that weakness. Diop + Dampier score less than 5 points on avg. in the series.

GS by 10.

passthesuga · #9 05-03-2007, 04:01 AM

I can't believe what I'm reading. I agree with Turtle and can't understand the thought process here.

1. This game is a win or go home for the Mavs
2. The Mavs are clearly the better team
3. The Mavs are capable of winning long stretches of games in a row, they proved this all season
3. The Mavs have the league MVP in their line up who will be super confident following his Game 5 heroics.
4. The Warriors will be feeling the pressure of failing to close out a 9 point lead with 3:15 on the clock.
5. (MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IMO) Playoff basketball is different to the regular season. The class teams step up when they need to. Warriors winning 6 of last 8 or whatever is totally irrelevant IMO.

Negatives for Mavs: Sure, there are some bad match ups there for Dallas, but they are one of the top 3 teams in the league and capable of overcoming this. Homecourt is the other negative, but the Mavs are a great road team.

If anything, the last game showed us exactly why the Mavs are a lock for this series. Because when the series is on the line, the have the players who will make the big plays (and the free throws).

Golden State had their chance and blew it. Mavs will coast this in by 5-10 points. i think the -2.5 line is a fantastic lock.

I mean, seriously, if you like GS you are pretty much saying they should be favourites?? To me, that is just crazy.

Good luck with your wagers.

PTS

Artdogg · #10 05-03-2007, 04:36 AM

lol your post is ridiculous. Sure playoff basketball is different from regular season basketball, but it isn't so much in this case as the Warriors have proven or the Mavs wouldn't be in this situation. They wouldn't have gotten down 3-1 and they wouldn't need to come back down 9 ON THEIR OWN HOME COURT IN AN ELIM GAME WITH 3 MINS TO PLAY. You basically are saying that they have been screwing around this whole time and they have waited til they were completely on the ropes to start playing. Maybe Dirk has awakened, which would be vital to the Mavs because they need everything they can get from him to win this game.