($36) SNGicon regular makes bizarre bubble play - thoughts?

[Theo_Brixton]

I think he was tilting btw. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[rocketeer]

Thank you z32 for a great analysis. Could you please explain what you mean by "auto-winning the next x hands"? Thanks.

[Eagles]

I agree with z32 except I think that his range for Theo is too tight.

[StregaChess]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you please explain what you mean by "auto-winning the next x hands"?

[/ QUOTE ]
They added that with table resizing, right below the auto-fold box.

[curtains]

I'd of course fold with the QTs.

[rocketeer]

Yes, I believe it is right above the "auto-useless-response" button.

[Longy]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Were you trying to conceal your FTP screenname here? If not, why'd you change it 2 out of the 4 times haha.

2. This play isn't that bad because if he wins (which he should ~40% of the time against your range) then you'll have <1 BB, and he can win the next 2 hands automatically because of the stack sizes. This will gain him 1800 chips, plenty to make up for getting it in behind here against you.

Here I'll run the 2 scenarios, his equity if he folds and you knock out the shorty, and his equity if you call and he beats you.

Scenario 1: He folds. His equity is ~$44. You also are chipleader on the bubble and will probably win most of the hands until the bubble bursts. It's unlikely that he will enter ITM with more than 1800 chips or so, giving him a very slim chance of winning the SNG.

Scenario 2: He shoves and loses 62% of the time against 44+,AJs+,AQo+. He shoves and wins 38% of the time, having 7280 chips. He then auto-wins 900 chips the next hand, then you're all in on the BB and he shoves again, auto-winning 130 chips (more if the BB is 800). Basically he's going to win the tournament a large (80?) percent of the time.

Basically, there are a lot of other factors that have to be considered, like the future of the bubble from both your and his perspective, which will greatly influence his ITM finish distribution, which is inredibly important. Either that or it was a misclick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow while being a consistent winning sng player for quite a while, my finish distribution sucks. I think this may be an area that I don't exploit anywhere near enough.

Thanks Z32 that has really made me think, cos when i first looked at it I was like OP, wtf is he doing here.

[curtains]

btw I would also go allin as the hero, none of this 1300 weirdness.

Also I am quite sure that If I went allin on the button there zfanatic is not reraising with QTs. I've played with him plenty and never seen him do anything like that once. Honestly I don't believe any regular player has EVER called me there with something as weak as QTs in my entire history of playing sit and gos, in this specific spot. I might be forgetting an example somewhere, but I'm sure I would remember it had it happened, and I don't think it ever did.


Basically I think everyone who read this thread and thinks they learned some magical theory should wipe the idea out of their head.

Also saying that you win the tournament 80% of the time when you win this hand is utterly ridiculous IMO. There is no chance thats even close to reality. Assuming you bust both players in this hand, you have about 55% of the chips in 3 handed play. I mean cmon this statement isn't even remotely close to reality.


It could be that zfanatic somehow thinks the BB will fold if both players are allin, but since the BB has half his stack in, I sure wouldn't count on that. Even if they did fold and we had 50% of the chips on the bubble, winning 80% is such a ridiculous overestimation of our 1st place chances.


Anyway some good chance everyone is just joking and that I've been pwned, but its really unbelievable that some of you guys seem to be going for it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[curtains]

Also all this misclick [censored], how the hell do you misclick allin?

[z32fanatic]

Ok let me clarify that my original post was completely made up. Misclick's play was clearly a misclick (insert joke here) and he told me it was, so I decided to try to defend it as best I could. Shoving QTs here is awful if it was on purpose, which it wasn't.