100nl AQs: TP in rr pot - played weak?

[Adelson]

Here are some of my thoughts on the hand.

Villain appears to be tight and hasn't gotten out of line in the few orbits I've played.

I checked behind on the flop because it is generally WA/WB. If I bet, I am either going to fold out smaller pairs (77-JJ) that I'd like to get value from or get c/r ai by KK/AA. I'm losing value against KQ and QJ, and flush draws, but just like ike, I generally don't worry about flush draws in RR pots. I'm more interested in inducing a bluff from an underpair or losing the least to KK/AA. I feel like a bet here has little value.

On the turn, Villain obliged and bet. I put him on a midpair, an overpair, or air. A raise here has no value, since again, I'd be folding out hands I beat, losing the most to hands I'm crushed by, and preventing Villain from continuing a bluff.

On the river, maybe I picked up a timing tell or something, but the size of the bet really made me think he had me beat, whether he setted up with JJ, had KK/AA or even QJ. I can't see a midpair like 88-TT firing two barrels on a QJxx board. On the river, he has to be bluffing >31% of the time for a call to be correct. I felt that he bluffs here much less often, and has TPTK beat here very often.

I may have made a weak fold, especially considering I induced the bluff by checking the flop. Still, it's rare to see two barrel bluffs against a preflop reraiser, especially at this level. I think this is a pretty good hand to post though, and I like the commentary so far.

Any more thoughts?

[DawnToDusk]

Alrighty. Taking from what bilbo-san said and what you said if we are WA/WB and we can find out how often we are ahead (buy guestimation? Like a percentage) then why don't we bet this flop when we think it is a close call whether we are WA/WB? We might not win more money from weaker hands and just win the pot but at the same time if that means a weaker hands fold on the flop as opposed to us checking and they getting a free card that could beat us then why don't we just bet this flop and win it now then?