($36) SNGicon regular makes bizarre bubble play - thoughts?

Theo_Brixton · #1 05-02-2007, 07:03 PM

I think this guy is a SNG icons protege and was on most of my tables today. I wonder if anyone can explain his logic here.. how could this be +EV for him? (sorry cant find a HH converter thats working atm)

Seat 1: Misclick (2,990)
Seat 2: BB (1,300)
Seat 7: UTG (3,820)
Seat 8: UTG+1 (2,230)
Seat 9: Theo (3,160)
Misclick posts the small blind of 300
BB posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Theo [Qc Qs]
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
GoldSeraph raises to 1,300
Misclick raises to 2,990, and is all in
BB calls 700, and is all in
GoldSeraph calls 1,690
Misclick shows [Qd Td]
BB shows [5s 4s]
Theo shows [Qc Qs]

whyherro · #2 05-02-2007, 07:04 PM

misclick ftw?

J-P · #3 05-02-2007, 07:12 PM

metagame obv

Theo_Brixton · #4 05-02-2007, 07:14 PM

but i barely play sngs anymore...

J-P · #5 05-02-2007, 07:15 PM

I honestly have no idea, I'm just as clueless as you.
This has to be a misclick I'm hoping. (lol no pun intended)

TheNoodleMan · #6 05-02-2007, 08:06 PM

I can't believe how quickly this got exposed but Slim and I made a bet that we both have to get it in with QdTd for a month. Whoever is down more at the end of the month has to walk from Caesars to Red Rock on a day to be chosen during the WSOP, starting at 11 am. Expected temp is around 110.

I hoped no one would know, but I guess the secrets out. Oh well, maybe it gets my monsters called too.

Slim Pickens · #7 05-02-2007, 08:17 PM

Thanks for putting me out front Theo.

z32fanatic · #8 05-02-2007, 08:39 PM

1. Were you trying to conceal your FTP screenname here? If not, why'd you change it 2 out of the 4 times haha.

2. This play isn't that bad because if he wins (which he should ~40% of the time against your range) then you'll have <1 BB, and he can win the next 2 hands automatically because of the stack sizes. This will gain him 1800 chips, plenty to make up for getting it in behind here against you.

Here I'll run the 2 scenarios, his equity if he folds and you knock out the shorty, and his equity if you call and he beats you.

Scenario 1: He folds. His equity is ~$44. You also are chipleader on the bubble and will probably win most of the hands until the bubble bursts. It's unlikely that he will enter ITM with more than 1800 chips or so, giving him a very slim chance of winning the SNG.

Scenario 2: He shoves and loses 62% of the time against 44+,AJs+,AQo+. He shoves and wins 38% of the time, having 7280 chips. He then auto-wins 900 chips the next hand, then you're all in on the BB and he shoves again, auto-winning 130 chips (more if the BB is 800). Basically he's going to win the tournament a large (80?) percent of the time.

Basically, there are a lot of other factors that have to be considered, like the future of the bubble from both your and his perspective, which will greatly influence his ITM finish distribution, which is inredibly important. Either that or it was a misclick.

bigj0e03 · #9 05-02-2007, 09:36 PM

I concur with z32, very advanced play, well done noodleman. I would probably do the same with J8s actually.

Theo_Brixton · #10 05-03-2007, 03:29 AM

Oops was trying to conceal it but oh well. Can a mod possibly edit it to Theo since I can't?

Z32 - That was either the most brilliant sng analysis or the biggest load of horse dung I've ever read here, I haven't quite figured it out yet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I find it hard to believe he really thought all that out in the 1 sec he took to jam after I raised :P

Also, were you taking into account the equity if he beats my QQ but loses the side pot to the shorty?