ATs turn play

[orange]

villan is a TAG. KnAbWoNsX or something like that. 21/18 over some mined hands.

I recently saw him cold call a raise/Reraise with AKs PF OOP then c/c-ed on a K high board against a loose bad player. I think he lost some value there but whatever. Seems to be pretty TAG. Hero is the same way, should be a bit looser but still relatively in line.

The coldcaller PF is west_eh, a TAG 2p2er. Havent played with him in forever though. He isn't really in this hand though. Turn play? easy c/r? (I dont really know what to make of his miniraise PF maybe a misclick?)

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
orange: $211.40
CO: $96.30
Button: $447.25
SB: $204
BB: $277.45

Pre-flop: (5 players) orange is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">orange raises to $7</font>, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $12</font>, SB calls, BB folds, orange calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($38, 3 players)
SB checks, orange checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $24</font>, SB folds, orange calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($86, 2 players)
orange ...

[faded]

i'd bet for value here.

[ParanoiD]

i'd bet about 60 here

[Laetus]

Me too, I guess I bet/fold this turn. I think villain is likely to check behind with AQ and AK without a club.

[synbad13]

I would bet something closer to 45-55.
Seems like 60+ is making them play their hand in a more ideal manner. He will probably fold a worse hand not containing a high club. He might call a bet of half the pot with an AQ/AK hand, but he would be scared of the flush the closer you get to betting the pot.

[rdh009]

I highly doubt the 21/18 will reraise your 3.5x UTGraise to 6x with KQs,KTs or worse. I would discount the made flush, but consider a backdoor draw. I wouln't eliminate the possibility of a set. AA doesn't seem logical with a smaller than minraise with deep stacks. JJ is the leading candidate for a hand that beats you. 22 he would have most likely flat called 3.5x.

You have about $175 behind going to turn, button has you covered. I first agreed with faded, bet for value, but is there a bet you can make that can decipher if he has a set of jacks? I'm not sure what that amount is, but I'd bet $72. That makes the pot $158. He is getting 2.2:1 expressed, 3.6:1 implied. If he comes over the top, I probably call, and lose my stack. :-(

[rdh009]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet something closer to 45-55.
Seems like 60+ is making them play their hand in a more ideal manner. He will probably fold a worse hand not containing a high club. He might call a bet of half the pot with an AQ/AK hand, but he would be scared of the flush the closer you get to betting the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line seems better than the one I posted. I seem to lose a lot of money making the plays like the one I just posted...

[Novles]

yeah, I'd b/f $66, but I'd strongly consider folding the flop, despite the odds he's giving you. Our hand can't stand any more heat, we're oop, he bet it multiway, and even when we hit one of our outs(?), we don't know what to do. When all of this adds up, I'd just chuck the flop.

[wrkingtobegreat]

Grunch. Check. You dont want to donk here and represent a made flush (which villain almost definitely doesn't have). Check-call, then bet out on the river.

[joeblack]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd bet about $67 here

[/ QUOTE ]