6-12 CP - Tough spot... Easy Laydown?

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, bad math on my part. It is about 5-1. I still fold. Do you really want to tangle in a relatively small pot with TPTK when 8 players saw the flop, there has been an early bet and turn raise and there are 5-6 players to act after you still?

[/ QUOTE ]


I have to disagree with you. UTG Berserko donks and UTG+2 raises on a 2d 5s 9c As board and Hero has AKo. Both blinds already checked and UTG+1 has already folded. Only the BTN has yet to act on this round and I see no reason to believe that the blinds are checking two rounds in a row with monsters. We have TPTK and should not give up on this pot that has almost 10 BB in it.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, calling here is absolutely horrible. If you are going to play you have to 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that I said 3-betting is probably the superior play.

[steakhouse]

Even Sklansky would 3-bet here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, bad math on my part. It is about 5-1. I still fold. Do you really want to tangle in a relatively small pot with TPTK when 8 players saw the flop, there has been an early bet and turn raise and there are 5-6 players to act after you still?

[/ QUOTE ]

Give me hand ranges for your opponents where you think you're beat? Flopped 2pair seems unlikely, maybe they limped w/A9, A5, A2 but maybe they limped w/AT, AJ, or AQ (I see this very often @ the LLs). Maybe UTG+2 has 98 of spade or some other draw that just picked up outs? Maybe they limped in w/a PP and hit their set? There are plenty of combinations of hands that you beat and some that beat you.

Like I said in my earlier post, if I'm utg+2, I'm raising any ace here 100% of the time, partly b/c I think I have the best hand and partyly b/c you may muck a better ace.

"It's bet and raised and I'm only getting 5:1 on my 3 bet w/TPTK" This type of weak tight thinking will get you killed in the higher limits. Sometimes it is correct to 3 bet tptk on the big streets, sometimes a bet and raise in front of you means your drawing dead. A good player will be able to tell the difference and will push hard when theres a chance to win. Are you ahead 100% of the time? No. Are you ahead ~30% of the time? Yes. Based on the player descriptions given by OP and the flop/turn action, laying down here is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Range is:
Set
Wheel
Paired A
A weaker kicker

Note. The two players who have acted check to the raiser on the flop. Thus, of all the players at the table, they are the most likely to have a hand, especially since they bet and raised into 6 other players and given that your hand screams A,K.

The more I think about this hand the more I don't know. If I am playing I am raising. But, a raise hurts my odds even worse and I risk a reraise. If I get reraised then my odds get even worse and I have to see 1 more to try and spike one of my outs. Then, the pot is big and it is hard not to make the river crying call if bet into again.

[ QUOTE ]
his type of weak tight thinking will get you killed in the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe. But so will calling turn raises in small pots with only a pair.

[steakhouse]

34 in his range? Is he retarded? Ace weaker kicker is definitely the most like holding of UTG+2. Unless he is dumb he would've bet his set on the flop and he can't have 3 aces. Paired A is possible but unlike, so I'd say that UTG+2 has a lesser hand than hero about 50% time or more.

[NormandySD]

I usually opt to fold at this point especially if you have not alreayd committed the one big bet. If you have, then you may look to the river for a K or board pair. The amount you commit from this point forward is a lot and with that many players to the flop the chance 1 pair will win is slim... especirally since players in SS will play a large range of ace hands


certainly fold for 2 bets unless the raiser is someone constantly trying to push out when they have something like a pair of aces with bad kicker... even still not many will trying to make this play on the turn.

[steakhouse]

It is imperative to raise with any ace in UTG+2 spot. Haven't you read your SSHE or do you just assume that all of the villains are loose and passive players?

[BigAlChicago]

[ QUOTE ]
Range is:
Set
Wheel
Paired A
A weaker kicker


[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't you be including two spades for a flush draw in the raiser's range at this point? (Kx or suited connectors, especially 87 or 76 where you have picked up the flush draw plus the gutshot.) This would be read dependent, but if he is aggressive, isn't he checking the flop with that holding and raising it into a field of six on the turn?

[ChuckyB]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, calling here is absolutely horrible. If you are going to play you have to 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling here is hardly 'horrible'.

If hero thinks there's a chance he's behind two pair (because Ax-two pair is a real possibility) and he doesn't want to fold, calling is his best option. A 3-bet opens him up to a 4-bet (from 2 pair or the wheel). And there is nothing Hero can do to force out a spade draw at this spot (spade draw would be getting at least 13:3)

Calling allows him almost the same chance to win the money as raising. And if Bezerko donked with an underpair to Hero's aces, Hero will probably get a call on the turn and another bet.

Hero may very well win the most and lose the least with a call here.

[ssmallz]

Range is:
Set - agree with you here, def agree this is the type of hand he might attempt to c/r the flop with and def raise a turn bet

Wheel - unlikely I doubt he limps w/34 here

Paired A - agreed

A weaker kicker - agreed

But you left out any draw or draw pair combo. An aggro player might just check hoping to c/r the flop, then when they miss, might try and raise the turn. Although this is less likely then the others I feel it merits consideration b/c he does have this hand sometimes

On top of this a draw pair combo might certianly raise the turn as a semibluff/value raise

I understand your point about saying that when we check the flop our hand is face up but your assuming that our opponents think about our hands like we think about theirs. In my experice, most of these people think in level one, "me have top pair, me raise". On top of that, your flop check can represent any 2 overcards and while an ace is most commone, you won't have an ace everytime.

I also disagree with the fact that the pot is small. While its true you maybe getting only 5:1 or worse if you raise/call, the pot is still > 10 BBs. If you put yourself in UTG's position, he is getting 8:1 on his call and from his perspective a raise could be correct with even a weak ace b/c "the pot is big and I've gotta try and win it".

If you fold here you're letting yourself get pushed out of a big pot simply b/c others have played aggressively and not because they have a better hand than you.

I also disagree with others that say we've gotta call a cap and call the river b/c the pot is so big. If we 3 bet, we've shown so much strenth here that we're not getting capped by less than a set or strait. 2pair is certianly going to be scared that we slowplayed aces or a set on the flop and prolly won't cap us here. Depending on the reads/river card, I might 3 bet here and check behind on the river UI.

One more point to make about our hand is that unless we're up against a strait or set, we have at least 3 outs and possibly more. So combine that with the probability that we are ahead and, assuming utg folds but UTG calls, we really only have to be ahead ~20% of the time to make 3 betting correct.

[Hamlet]

I play the 6-12 at Canterbury Park and I will assure you that 34 is in a lot of people's ranges [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] I also would not rule out a set based on the "right" way to play a hand.

The CP 6-12 is full of very loose, mostly passive players. There are a few tight players, and a few aggressive ones, but there are huge numbers of loose-passives. I would not expect AK to be good a whole lot here. I would put the raiser's most likely hand to be two pair, probably with an Ace, but not neccessarily. Without knowing a little about the players, it is impossible to judge.

It's a tough spot. I think 3-betting is likely to be spewing. I probably call, but I think folding is pretty reasonable too.


[ QUOTE ]
34 in his range? Is he retarded? Ace weaker kicker is definitely the most like holding of UTG+2. Unless he is dumb he would've bet his set on the flop and he can't have 3 aces. Paired A is possible but unlike, so I'd say that UTG+2 has a lesser hand than hero about 50% time or more.

[/ QUOTE ]