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#1
04-30-2007, 04:38 PM
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MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
I recently was given $100 on Oddsmaker.com and have decided to try my hand at baseball betting. I am very much a novice, and will make some glaring mistakes more than likely, but I am hoping to learn with this boards help and work on becoming a break even+ bettor by the end of the year or perhaps multiple years. Thank you in advance for any input you give, and without further ado here are my picks for Monday 4/30:
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers Play Time: 2007-04-30 19:05 Selection: Detroit to win Bet Type MoneyLine Bet Odds -143 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $8.49 St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Play Time: 2007-04-30 19:05 Selection: St. Louis Cardinals to win Bet Type MoneyLine Bet Odds +118 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $10.9 Chicago-N Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Play Time: 2007-04-30 19:05 Selection: Pittsburgh to win Odds: Point Spread (+1.5) -140 Bet Type Point Spread Bet Odds -140 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $8.57 Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays Play Time: 2007-04-30 19:05 Selection: Toronto to win Odds: Point Spread (-1.5) -110 Bet Type Point Spread Bet Odds -110 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $9.54 Florida Marlins at New York-N Mets Play Time: 2007-04-30 19:10 Selection: Florida to win Odds: Point Spread (+1.5) -165 Bet Type Point Spread Bet Odds -165 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $8.03 Yesterday's picks were: Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners Play Time: 2007-04-29 16:05 Selection: Seattle to win Odds: Point Spread (-1.5) +145 Final Score: Seattle 5 Kansas City 1 Bet Type Point Spread Bet Odds +145 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $12.25 Won Amount: 12.25 San Fran. Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Play Time: 2007-04-29 16:40 Selection: Arizona to win Odds: Point Spread (-1.5) +155 Final Score: Arizona 5 San Fran. 4 Bet Type Point Spread Bet Odds +155 Bet Amount $5.00 Bet Payout $12.75 Won Amount: $0.00 for a total of +2.25 or +.45u. As long as I don't go broke too fast I'll start doing more in-depth analysis. Just don't have the time to explain why i made the picks I did. Also, am I supposed to make my won amount even as opposed to my bet amount? -Spence 
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#2
05-01-2007, 05:29 AM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
Cubs(-1.5)Over Pirates 5u
Offense: Cubs have been hitting the ball well. They are capable of getting SB's and playing small ball if need be, but I don't believe they will need to today. Pirates have been struggling at the plate. They are not being patient enough at the plate and tend to chase balls that they should be taking. Edge: Cubs Starting Pitching: Lilly has been pitching great his last 5 starts. I see no reason why this is going to end, he's been going 6-7 innings every game and is showing good command of his pitches. He will be able to take advantage of the free swinging Pirates. Armas struggled in all 3 of the game's he has pitched this season, and has not gone longer than 5 innings in any of his starts (he had thrown 113 pitches in his last start; with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts). I see him leaving this game early. Edge: Cubs Relievers: Chicago has blown some leads due to their relievers, but it was only because they were hotly contested games. They have kept the walks down, and are doing whats needed for the most part. I see them starting to pick up more holds and saves as the season progresses. Pirates relievers have seen a bit of action, and have done well. I see more of the same continuing, but walks might hurt them. Edge: Push Defense: Both teams are good in the field, and I don't see this having an impact on outcome of the game. Edge: Push Cubs win 6-3. ------------------------------------------------- Oakland vs Boston Under 9 5u Offense: Oakland is struggling at the plate, and with schilling on the mound I don't see this being their breakout game. Boston has been hitting the ball wall, but not as well as expected. Manny is starting to work out of his slump, and this is my main concern. If he rips the ball today my under will fly high, no lie. Edge: Boston Starting Pitching Blanton has pitched well so far this season. He does not give up many walks, and he is able to get the ball past some people. His pitch counts have been relatively high, but not so high that he will be worn down. Schilling has pitched well since his first start debacle against the Royals. He's gone deep every other game and done well in every single one. Edge: Slight Boston Relievers: Oaklands Relievers have not done well at all so far this season, but as long as they can limit the big inning they will do good enough to keep from hitting the over. Boston's Relievers have been lights out so far. I don't see the trend being upset on this night. Edge: Boston Defense: Oakland is doing very well, Boston has struggled a little bit, but unless there are any big rallies off an error hopefully it won't have a big impact on the outcome of the game. Edge: Oakland Boston wins 4-2 ------------------------------------------------- Toronto to cover +1.5 5u Offense: Toronto has been doing good as a team hitting the ball and getting on base. They have good power, and if they can get the bat's going will put some runs up, even against Sabathia. Cleveland really hasn't gotten the bat's going yet this year, but they are doing one thing thats needed to be successful, and thats being patient. They will get on base as much as any other team, and they will be driven in by HR's and gappers. Edge: Push Starting Pitching: Burnett is on the mound for the Jays, and his last 2 starts have been very impressive. My only worry is how many pitches he threw in both those outtings. He had some control issues, and that lead to some high pitch counts, but the walks never really hurt him. He has pitched much better during the night than the day, posting just over a 1.30 ERA in 3 night games. I look for him to have a solid outing, giving up 2-3 runs in 7 innings of work. Sabathia has gotten it done so far this year. His last outing has been his worse, but it appeared that it was from fatigue more than anything else. He has great control, and has a great K/Walk ratio. I expect to see him do well against the Blue Jays, also going 6-7 innings and giving up only 2-3 runs. Edge: Push Relievers: Both squads have middle of the road relievers, and either club is as likely to give up runs than the other. Edge: Push Fielding: Toronto has been a bit cleaner on the field compared to the Indians. Edge: Toronto I went back and forth on my play on this game, I was definitely going with Toronto at +1.5, but should I gamble for the straight up win. I see a great game, and I see it going right down to the end. I'm going to play it safe even though I may be sacrificing some value as I see this game 50/50, but I'd like to hedge my bet. 4-3 Whoever. ------------------------------------------------- Florida Vs Mets Over 9.5 5u Offense: Marlins are hitting the [censored] out of the ball this year. They have more HR's than any other team so far this season, and are also hitting for average. They are also able to draw a walk, but strikeout more frequently than most teams. Mets are also pounding the ball all around the park. They do not have as much power as the Marlins, but are more of a "small-ball" team and will run on the marlins if they get on. Don't get me wrong, they aren't lacking power, as much as Marlins have an extreme abundance of it so far this year. Shea Stadium is known as a pitcher's park, but that also means there's more space to drop in base hits. The Mets are great at exploiting that, and the Marlins will still get their long balls, and hit the gaps. Edge: Push Starting Pitching: Nolasco has pitched in only one game, in which he didn't start, and gave up 3 ER in 1.1 innings. He was 11-11 last year posting a 4.82 ERA. If theres anything positive I can say, is that he locates the ball well, and doesn't give up too many walks, not that the mets would take them anyway. I see him getting bruised up and out before the 4th inning. Pelfrey will pitch for the Mets and I don't see it goign well. He will get hit early and often. He has made it through a total of 13.2 innings in 3 games and has a 7.90 ERA over those starts, all at home. I see him being roughed up the same as Nolasco, perhaps making it to the fourth if he's lucky. Edge: Push Relievers: Florida relievers have been having some issues getting through the later innings, and have been stretched to their limits over the last couple weeks. Once Nolasco gets knocked out the relievers will struggle to keep the game from getting out of hand. The Mets' reliever's have been doing a great job, and they will have to earn their paycheck tonight. They will most defnitely take some dings tonight, but whether those dings leads to run is all up to how the pitchers locate their pitches. Edge: Mets Defense Both teams are good in the field, but teams tend to steal alot of bases off the Marlins. This will come in to play as the Mets will take those opportunities. Both are sound otherwise though. Edge: Slightly Mets Overall I see the Mets winning, but with them being at -1.5 I don't feel confident enough in them covering the spread to do that play. I really pondered doing the parlay, but I'm going to go with what I feel is the greatest EV. I'm worried, because the line seems very generous, I'm afraid I might be missing something, please fill me in if you have any ideas. Mets win 7-6. ------------------------------------------------- Recap: Florida Marlins vs. NYM Over 9.5 -120(5u) Oakland A's vs BoSox Under 9.0 -120 (5u) Chicago Cubs (-1.5) +105 (5u) Toronto (+1.5) -165 (5u) ------------------------------------------------- Yesterdays Results: Detroit -143| 5u to win 8.5u (win) STL +118 | 5u to win 10.90u (loss) Pittsburgh +1.5 | 5u to win 8.57 (win) Texas -1.5 | 5u to win 9.54 (win) Florida +1.5 | 5u to win 8.03 (win) Overall: +9.64 WTD: +11.88 (I changed my 1u to 5u to conform to board specifications). Started with $100, bidding in increments of $5 still, just making it easier to understand hopefully, as always comments are appreciated.
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#4
05-01-2007, 03:50 PM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
That is definitely one of my weaker points. Last night I was considering that exact point. I really should read more up on that subject. What I do more than anything is try to find underdogs that I think are 50/50 or greater given the matchups, or favorites that I think have the best chance for blowouts. The over/unders I am new to, and I really didn't think too much about the -120 I had to lay. I guess I'll go do more reading on the threads around here, also should I bother posting my reasoning behind picks, or until I become successful consistently should I not bother? Thanks again whipsaw for the reply, gonna whip me in to shape [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
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#5
05-01-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
Keep posting your reasoning if you think it helps you. On the other hand, I wouldn't bother if you are inconvienced by doing so. GL bro.
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#6
05-01-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
ty crusha.
I'll probably continue to do abridged versions unless somebody asks me to go in to greater detail. I will also start trying to lay my own odds on the games. For the games tonight: Cubs (-1.5) vs Pirates +105. I honestly think cubs win by 2 60% of the time, and win overall 75% given the matchup. Toronto (+1.5)-165. As I said above I think this game is close to 50/50 if not 55/45 in favor of Toronto. I went with the point spread, because I feel it's going to be a low scoring affair, and expect whoever to win to do so by 1 run. I would expect Toronto to cover this spread 3/4's of the time. A's Vs Sox (under 9) -120. As I said earlier I didn't really take in to account the -120 when I made this pick, and hadn't really thought about the odds much in the matchup, but I see the %'s as: Less than 3 runs: 5% 3 runs overall: 3% 4 runs overall: 5% 5 runs overall: 8% 6 runs overall: 14% 7 runs overall: 14% 8 runs overall: 14% 9 runs overall: 12% 10 runs or more: 25% That spread is about how I view this game, so with 63% in my opinion to win outright and 12% to push I think its a very +ev bet even with my added analysis. Of course these numbers are just how *I* feel given the research I've done, so I would expect somebody else to have different numbers. Only time will tell if mine are reasonble or not. Marlins vs Mets over 9.5 -120 I just see this line getting obliterated, which means I probably missed something [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. I would go as far to say I see it as: 9 runs and lower: 30% 10 runs and higher: 70% With about 20% of the chances coming in the 7-9 run range. Of course either of the pitchers could have the game of their life. Really my biggest concern is that Pelfrey will give 4 good innings where he only gives up 3-4 runs, and then their bullpen comes in and stops the bleeding, and Nolasco has the game of his life against the potent mets, and makes it deep in to the 6th or 7th inning. I just don't see this occuring often enough to warrant not taking this bet. I never intend to write as much as I do, and I'm sorry for the novels, but thats my take on the 4 games tonight.
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#7
05-01-2007, 05:14 PM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
[ QUOTE ]
ty crusha. I'll probably continue to do abridged versions unless somebody asks me to go in to greater detail. I will also start trying to lay my own odds on the games. For the games tonight: Cubs (-1.5) vs Pirates +105. I honestly think cubs win by 2 60% of the time, and win overall 75% given the matchup. Toronto (+1.5)-165. As I said above I think this game is close to 50/50 if not 55/45 in favor of Toronto. I went with the point spread, because I feel it's going to be a low scoring affair, and expect whoever to win to do so by 1 run. I would expect Toronto to cover this spread 3/4's of the time. A's Vs Sox (under 9) -120. As I said earlier I didn't really take in to account the -120 when I made this pick, and hadn't really thought about the odds much in the matchup, but I see the %'s as: Less than 3 runs: 5% 3 runs overall: 3% 4 runs overall: 5% 5 runs overall: 8% 6 runs overall: 14% 7 runs overall: 14% 8 runs overall: 14% 9 runs overall: 12% 10 runs or more: 25% That spread is about how I view this game, so with 63% in my opinion to win outright and 12% to push I think its a very +ev bet even with my added analysis. Of course these numbers are just how *I* feel given the research I've done, so I would expect somebody else to have different numbers. Only time will tell if mine are reasonble or not. Marlins vs Mets over 9.5 -120 I just see this line getting obliterated, which means I probably missed something [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. I would go as far to say I see it as: 9 runs and lower: 30% 10 runs and higher: 70% With about 20% of the chances coming in the 7-9 run range. Of course either of the pitchers could have the game of their life. Really my biggest concern is that Pelfrey will give 4 good innings where he only gives up 3-4 runs, and then their bullpen comes in and stops the bleeding, and Nolasco has the game of his life against the potent mets, and makes it deep in to the 6th or 7th inning. I just don't see this occuring often enough to warrant not taking this bet. I never intend to write as much as I do, and I'm sorry for the novels, but thats my take on the 4 games tonight. [/ QUOTE ] Just as a general matter I think you're vastly overrating your edge on the professional books with these bets. What is your methodology for estimating how often Toronto will lose by 1 run versus more than 1, for example? Is it just a ballpark figure in your head?
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#8
05-01-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
You're probably correct in that I'm overestimating my edge. I've followed baseball closely for many years as well as having played it, but I have never done betting on it, which means I am probably off a little on my %'s. I had always heard overtime beating a line for 5% is about the best you could do, so im almost certainly too high on my figures.
On the Toronto question I expect it to be a low scoring game, and I really don't see any team having a significant edge over the other one given the matchups. Overtime I think the average scores between the teams would fall to within one run. ie 4-3, but I am not sure how I would quantify to a correct estimate on the run. Is it necessary to be able to quanity the answer to a precise % for an individual game? That is an honest question, is there a methodology that I can use minus the ol' looking at matchups, computing an edge (Not a mathemetical one) (perhaps thats my problem), and just trying to figure out what they avg score would be over 20 games simulated out? Of course this is baseball, all my predictions could be off by a landslide but still be correct over time. Are there any great posts I should check out etc?
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#9
05-02-2007, 03:30 AM
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Re: MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)
Starting with the cubs games, Push.
Eh, my predictions were a bit off, but I think my logic was still solid. Lilly pitched well, and the pirates just played a very good brand of small-ball. The first inning really hurt, but he still never lost his focus. Armas did much better than expected, and I was wondering if anybody saw it coming. If so I'd like to know how [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Either way, he pitched well through 6, but his bullpen gave up the quick 4. Oakland Vs Boston Under 9. Of course there's nothing I could do about this game. Just got unlucky. I'll get over it. Toronto +1.5 to cover. "My only worry is how many pitches he threw in both those outtings. He had some control issues, and that lead to some high pitch counts, but the walks never really hurt him." That pretty much sums up this game. I'm going to stop counting on pitchers that have been having control problems or high pitch counts over the last few games. This is usually a good indicator of future performance from my experience, but I was hoping he had one more good start in him. Florida vs Mets Over 9.5 Pitchers did better than expected, but the main problem was the fact that the mets just couldn't string together hits. 11 hits and only 2 runs, thats a way that a pitcher's ballpark helps. Overall it was a good learning experience, i'll definitely choose my O/U's much more carefully. Yesterday's Results: 0-2-2 -10u WTD: +1.88u Will be posting my picks in about an hour, but won't be going as in depth as before. It takes a considerable amount of time to write out my previews, and I don't think they're a big enough benefit to people reading. Perhaps when I start picking some winners I'll give some better information.
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