Fold to Early? or 20/20 Hindsite?

[BigAlChicago]

[/ QUOTE ]You are not accounting for runner runner trips or runner runner 2 pair. While thin, this adds value.

Also, why are you assuming a bet and a raise on the turn, especially since the flop wasnt raised and the cards that give us the draws arent cards likely to induce a lot of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right, I did not account for two pairs or trips for two reasons. First, it is possible that you are up against a set already or AJ or A10. Even if you turn a pair, given those odds, you can't count on having a clean 5-outer. I also did not discount for the chance that the two cards that make your straight gives someone else their backdoor flush. If you disregard the flush possibilities, you know if you hit your straight, you are chopping at worst.

As to the 2 bets on the turn, that came from the OP stating he thought it was quite likely that any card the gives you a straight draw would give someone two pairs and that two on the turn was likely. In any event, in doing the calculation, you have to consider how many turn bets you will need to pay to see the river.

In any event, even with such a large pot, I still think it is a close calculation, but probably a fold on the flop.

[NormandySD]

Thanks for all of the good posts all. Please allow me to address the most important first: A more accurate hand history.


Flop: (24 SB) A, 8, 2r (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (14.5 BB) 2 bets 4 other players to river

River: (22.5 BB) 3 players for 1 bet to showdown

25.5

Rake 4$

(even if hero hits nuts it would likely only be 2 other players for 2 BB.. so the actual pot is a good pot with implied odds built in)


Also to those addressing the gutshots or turning a pair and looking to develop.

I would likely not play the hand with the intention of attempting to develop from any of those turn cards. Reason being the 2 bets on the turn was a pretty standard play at this table, especially on a pot that big. And as predicted the Button capper had A10.

So we are talking about a nuts only draw (unless someone runners flush alongside me). laying down all else on the turn except a very passive 1 bet for gutshot / closing action.

From what it sounds like the play would have been about a coin flip bearing a nice stretch of the imagination and a small stomach alscer. My justification on the confusion is somethign like this

"if i pick up the OESD on the turn and 5 of us go to the river then I am getting close to even EV just from that betting and calling" So wouldnt my real math justification be the odds against the money of pickup up that OESD on the turn, since it is even money from that point forward because of the callers (perhaps profitable).

The main adjusting factor in the hand would be the anticipation of how the hand will be played by other players... but again... the play that went down on the hand was super predictable. top 2 raise turn... lots of callers.

[Grease]

How on earth did you get involved with JTo in a capped pot PF OOP?

That said, I'm seriously considering a flop call here. You have two backdoor straight draws, both of which would require you to use two cards and would be to the nuts. If you don't think there will be a C/R on the flop. Also, if you miss on the turn, it's an automatic fold. And, if you do backdoor them, you'd put the table on tilt.

I call the flop.

[Grease]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this flop.

J high isn't a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking about hand-ranges in too absolute terms. I cap the flop frequently with "Just A high." I also have the NFD to go with my A high, but you need to look at the insane odds we're being offered here, and the very real chance of improvement on the turn, as well as the fact that we can easily dump our hand if we don't improve.

[BigAlChicago]

I think given the size of this pot, you should probably be calling the turn with a gut shot draw. You might want to reconsider if it is two BB back to you, depending on how many bets are in the pot at that point and whether you think it is likely to get reraised behind you. You also might consider folding a gutshot draw if the turn does not complete the rainbow because only three of your outs would be clean to the gut shot.

I agree that you should not be calling down the turn with a paired J or 10 as in that case, there is a fairly strong chance that you are drawing dead. Discounting the 5-outer there for the times that you are drawing dead makes a clear fold, IMO.

As for the preflop play, I think that I am almost always calling J10 offsuit for 1 SB in the BB. When it comes back to me the second time for 2 SBs, the odds are essentially the same as with the first decision, especially if the 3-bettor is on our left and will be closing the action.

Interestingly, I referred to my chart of starting hands from SSHE, and it appears that it recommends folding this hand in the big blind in the loose game (i.e., for one SB in a raised pot), but calling it in a tight game. I am not sure if this is accurate, but I think that I agree with the sentiment, that when it comes back to you a second time preflop for two bets, it is probably a fold. That said, in the heat of the battle, I am probably throwing my $6 in and hoping to hit a better flop than you did.

[StrictlyStrategy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold this flop.

J high isn't a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking about hand-ranges in too absolute terms. I cap the flop frequently with "Just A high." I also have the NFD to go with my A high, but you need to look at the insane odds we're being offered here, and the very real chance of improvement on the turn, as well as the fact that we can easily dump our hand if we don't improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

As well as the times you end up getting sucked in for four bets on the turn with a gutshot with two spades on the board in the exact same, almost unavoidable way he got sucked in preflop.

[NormandySD]

Well it doesnt sound like anyone has anything super concrete on this one other than that it would not be a textbook play. I think this will be my final take on the matter.

"since there was no way to play the hand wrong or with neg EV if I hit the OESD on the turn.....therefore my real calculation would be if it was worth drawing for the OESD card on the turn. $3 to $100 in the pot = 33 to 1. WELL OVER the odds of picking up the Q or 9. The turn callers $ and implied odds all apply to the turn action and will be left out on this calculation since we dont want to count that money twice.

SKLANSKY SAVE ME IF IM WRONG!

[BigAlChicago]

Where do you see $100 in the pot on the flop? With your call, there would be 24 SBs in the pot which is $72 pre-rake and $68 after the $4 rake (and that assumes the one player to act behind you flat calls).

The odds of hitting a Q or 9 and then completing your straight is about 33 to 1. (8*8/47*46)=2.96%. But you will need to call the flop bet PLUS the turn bet, so you are not getting anywhere close to 33 to 1 on your money.

You need the odds to make your hand, not to pick up your draw on the turn. If you do pick up the draw on the turn, you will clearly have the odds to call to the river if you are open ended and may be even if you have a gutshot, although that might be a close call. But you are not getting 33 to 1 to hit your draw on the turn, and even if you were, you have to evaluate the odds of making your hand by the river.

What makes this hand so intriguing is that absent a runner-runner flush, any straight you make will be the nuts which, in a sense, simplifies the analysis.

[NormandySD]

Sounds Accurate. You are definately right in the last point about what makes me curious about this hand. Also because as you stated it would be such an easy hand to play once at the turn... but at the same time would also REQUIRE a turn bet along with it to make the hand. there is also a very good chance of picking up the draw and then missing on the river which is the worst case scenario.

Ill put this one in the pile with the rest of the hands that could have been... but was right to get out.

[gobbledygeek]

[ QUOTE ]

The odds of hitting a Q or 9 and then completing your straight is about 33 to 1. (8*8/47*46)=2.96%. But you will need to call the flop bet PLUS the turn bet, so you are not getting anywhere close to 33 to 1 on your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you factor in a K on the turn gives us a gutshot I believe that increase our odds to 3.7% which gives us 1:27 odds and is therefore enough based on this alone (i.e. ignoring runner runner J's or T's). Someone might want to confirm my math, I could be wrong.

Help a noob out, I'm confused by your statement saying that we don't have anywhere near the odds due to us also needing to put in a bet on the turn if we hit a K, Q or 9 [ETA: or 7]. Don't we only factor in the bet we have to put in on the flop cuz we can dump this on the turn if we don't hit any of those cards?

[ETA: I just saw your earlier post where you also factored in the 7 (which I forgot) and calculated some even better odds for us to continue.]

GmathishardG