Simple flop question

[Brocktoon]

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, 2 folds, Hero...?

[Matt Ruff]

I'd fold. The pot's small, and if Villain has an 8 -- which he easily could, having limped from the SB -- he's got a made hand and as many as 10 outs to a boat or quads.

[Buzz]

Fold.

Buzz

[Brocktoon]

I folded, just making sure. Thnks for the replies.

[chaos]

You want to be drawing to the nuts. Since the board is paired a flush will not be the nuts. Fold.

- chaos

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, 2 folds, Hero...?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not folding here. I'm peeling one card and calling the turn if I make my flush or pick up a low draw.

Folding here seems nearly criminal IMHO. You have the nut flush draw and a backdoor low draw and last I checked, people don't lead with full houses in this spot. But at these takes, they do like to lead with over pairs and wraps.

Call.

Re-evaluate the turn.

The rest of this forum is a bunch of nits.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
people don't lead with full houses in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]Tex - Some do.

[ QUOTE ]
But at these takes, they do like to lead with over pairs and wraps.

[/ QUOTE ]Perhaps idiots do. This is a paired flop in a low limit game where four players have seen the flop!

The rest of us are most likely to lead with trips. (And to somewhat disguise them, I also will usually lead with a full house).

I might not lead with quads, unless nobody expected me to lead with quads.

This lead is coming from the small blind. Could be anything. Could easily be trip eights. The pot is not big enough to justify the possible losing draw.

It's not close.

This is a clear fold.

Buzz

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
people don't lead with full houses in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]Tex - Some do.

[ QUOTE ]
But at these takes, they do like to lead with over pairs and wraps.

[/ QUOTE ]Perhaps idiots do. This is a paired flop in a low limit game where four players have seen the flop!

The rest of us are most likely to lead with trips. (And to somewhat disguise them, I also will usually lead with a full house).

I might not lead with quads, unless nobody expected me to lead with quads.

This lead is coming from the small blind. Could be anything. Could easily be trip eights. The pot is not big enough to justify the possible losing draw.

It's not close.

This is a clear fold.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz,

Folding here is only right if he only does this with a full house, quads, or trip eights. In those instances we've got about a total of 12% equity in the pot and we're getting 5-1 IIRC.

In many scenarios versus a random hand containing an eight OP is a 3-1 underdog getting 5-1 to call.



here's an example of a 3-1 where we're against a reasonable hand from the villain:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2620488
pokenum -o8 ah 3d ts kh - - qs 8d jc td -- 9h 8h 8s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 9h 8h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 3d Ah Kh 180 180 640 0 160 0 0 0.274
Qs Jc Td 8d 550 640 180 0 0 0 0 0.726



But, if villain is ever leading this flop with a wrap- we're the 3-1 favorite:


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2620493
pokenum -o8 ah 3d ts kh - - 7s jd qd tc -- 9h 8h 8s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 9h 8h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 3d Ah Kh 559 559 261 0 144 0 0 0.713
7s Tc Qd Jd 210 261 559 0 0 0 0 0.287


And if he leads with an over pair and a straight draw we're essentially a coin flip:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2620494
pokenum -o8 ah 3d ts kh - - js jd tc 7d -- 9h 8h 8s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 9h 8h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 3d Ah Kh 360 360 460 0 144 0 0 0.487
Js Tc Jd 7d 382 460 360 0 0 0 0 0.513


And for good measure, worst case scenario:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2620496
pokenum -o8 ah 3d ts kh - - 8c 9s jd qc -- 9h 8h 8s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 9h 8h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 3d Ah Kh 0 0 820 0 160 0 0 0.098
9s Qc 8c Jd 660 820 0 0 0 0 0 0.902


I think this is a good time to consider the range villain will bet with here. There's some opponents that make this a clear fold, but against a typical loose player at these stakes, I think it's in poor judgement to minimize his range to hands that have us as a significant underdog.


Or you can just sum it up like I do when I'm in this spot.


WE HAVE A FLUSH DRAW!!!!

Seriously speaking, my normal line is to call the flop and fold UI on the turn, and only bet/raise river with a low and a flush.

-Tex

[flavius]

I think the key is the backdoor low to this hand. Without it i would fold, with it I think calling could be correct. I think the best play here is to put in a small raise and it would completely clear up the situation IMO. He comes over the top your beat, if not your going to get to see the river for free most likely. Maybe he even folds.

[Buzz]

Tex - But Hero is not really getting five to one because the betting isn’t over after the second betting round. The bet on the second betting round is only the first (and cheapest) installment on a two or three payment plan. Are we going to have Hero fold if he doesn’t make a flush or the nut low? If so, it’s a two payment plan. Are we going to have Hero continue all the way to the showdown? If so, it’s a three payment plan.

If Hero continues to the showdown, as he must to win anything, then he henceforth will be putting in five bets rather than one, in order to win nine bets (the five already in the pot plus four to be henceforth contributed by SB.

Put another way, you’re not considering reverse implied pot odds. I think you should.

Nice sims, by the way. I was going to run my own, but I like your choices better than mine would have been.

Let’s assume neither of the two who have folded held an eight. Then the probability SB was dealt an eight is 1-C(35,4)/C(37,4) = about 21%. But since SB bet before anyone else had acted, there is actually a greater probability SB has at least an eight (assuming SB is aware of the danger of possibly betting into trip eights or better).

Sure, SB could be trying to steal the pot here. SB could have almost anything and be figuring that half the time nobody else will have an eight or better. 1-C(43,12)/C(45,12) = about 47%. then add probability of a pair of nines and you’re very close to 49% or about half.

Thus from SB’s perspective, a bluff into this pot after this flop has a reasonable enough chance to succeed to be worthwhile to attempt. SB has “the right of first bluff,” and may have exercised it here.

And there’s really nothing Hero should do about it. Goes against the grain to let someone get away with a possible bluff, but without at least trip eights, with just a flush draw plus bare 2nd nut backdoor low draw (plus trips, two pair, and one pair possibilities, albeit poor possibilities), I think Hero’s best play is to fold.

Buzz