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  #1  
Old 04-28-2007, 07:25 AM
disko disko is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 235
Default flop trips, turn house. am i behind?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($106.40)</font>
<font color="#C00000">MP1 ($148.70)</font>
MP2 ($46.95)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($135.20)
Button ($112.80)
SB ($100.75)
BB ($95)
UTG ($37.50)
UTG+1 ($48.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $9</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($19.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, MP1 calls $9.

Turn: ($37.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($37.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $12</font>

hero is 99% sure he is behind. do you call anyway?
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  #2  
Old 04-28-2007, 08:27 AM
BlueBear BlueBear is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 1,337
Default Re: flop trips, turn house. am i behind?

A pure matter of estimate your calling odds.

If you think your hand is good over 12/(37.5+12+12) = 19.5% of the time, call the river. Since you truly think that your hand is only good 1% of the time(!) based on your read then it's a fold.
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