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Old 04-27-2007, 09:33 PM
jstill jstill is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: downtown portsmouth
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Default Re: bet this river?

weak pair hands are still much more of his donking range here, particularly when its considered how few 3x hands BB will defend here HU (questionable) and donk the flop with but not the river.

I think this is an easy river cr with 33 or A3 for villain (those are my only 3x hands here for me probably vs some stealers maybe K3s or something) since uve made it clear ur hand is Tx or an overpair or set but most villains think " I made straight, he mite check with the one card straight out, I bet" which is often true but not here, but I think villains will mess this up enough where once he checks u can go to value town.

fwiw all his worse pairs that call the turn raise are showdown bound nearly 100% of the time, so villain will call very often with a worse hand here. I also happen to think u can bet fold but even if u bet call I think thats +EV.
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