Top Pair Test for Newbies

[jk3a]

Villain is 24/12/2 through 200 hands. My image should be on the snug side of TAG.

1. What is his range after he calls the flop?
2. What is the optimal river line?
3. Why?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($27.30)
SB ($84.65)
BB ($100)
Hero ($141)
MP ($103.20)
CO ($161.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, MP calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP calls $10, BB folds.

Turn: ($32.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($32.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[shpanko]

1.) Flop calling range is a lot of mid-range and small pocket pairs like 55-99, some JTs/T9s/T8s, less likely are J9s/KJs type of hands that are drawing. Very rarely is it a monster like QT/overpairs/22.

2/3.)Optimal river line is probably bet because Tx will call and so will a lot of 66-99 hands. He might bluff missed draws but I think those are a small enough part of his range that betting for value has more merit.

If I'm ruining that question by responding I can delete my post

[jk3a]

[ QUOTE ]
1.) Flop calling range is a lot of mid-range and small pocket pairs like 55-99, some JTs/T9s/T8s, less likely are J9s/KJs type of hands that are drawing. Very rarely is it a monster like QT/overpairs/22.

2/3.)Optimal river line is probably bet because Tx will call and so will a lot of 66-99 hands. He might bluff missed draws but I think those are a small enough part of his range that betting for value has more merit.

If I'm ruining that question by responding I can delete my post

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting thoughts. No need to delete. I'm looking forward to seeing what others have to say. I'm off to bed for now.

[sweetjazz]

I am a total newb to NL, especially online. My guess for his hand range after he calls the flop is Qx, Tx, KJ/J9, maybe some medium pairs or gutshot hands like AJ. When he checks the turn, it seems like he has a weakish made hands that wants to see a showdown in a small pot. Given the complete blank on the river, I think you should bet, and because you beat just about everything in his range (maybe he has KQ or AQ here some of time) and you haven't shown much strength to this pot, I'd suggest making a pot-sized bet, say $30.

Interesting post, I would appreciate after everyone else has had a chance to reply if any flaws in my reasoning could be pointed out to me.

[craigthedeac]

1) With his call with action behind him I'd say he has to have at least a good T or is drawing. QQ TT are not likely because of preflop action. 22 is a possibility at this point as is QT. For the most part, we should feel confident that we are ahead though, we are at least beating his range.

2/3) Despite the fact that I really think we are ahead most of the time, I like a c/c on the river if you aren't willing to fire the turn. Unless you have a read that he is kinda fishy, I won't expect him to call with any worse hands. Decent players probably aren't calling with a T, and if he has a Q it's gotta be a better one (or QJ too) because Q9 and worse aren't calling preflop. So I don't think you have any value in a river bet because he is folding all worse pairs as well as his missed draws.

If you c/c, you get value from the times where he decides to bluff a missed draw or try to make thin value bets with something a T, for example. He will definitely have insentive to do this, because our hand is severely under-represented.

It's an awkward spot where you should feel really good about your hand, yet clicking the bet button won't do much.

[FishSticks]

On the flop he could have a lot of stuff. When he checks behind the turn his range gets weaker in my mind, as I'm assuming sets/2pair/good queens from this guy that smoothcalled the flop fire at this point, and I'm generally putting him on a ten of KJ.

I agree with craig as to the reasons for c/c the river. I don't think he's paying you off with weak stuff very often with your nitty image and UTG raise.

[shpanko]

[ QUOTE ]
1) With his call with action behind him I'd say he has to have at least a good T or is drawing. QQ TT are not likely because of preflop action. 22 is a possibility at this point as is QT. For the most part, we should feel confident that we are ahead though, we are at least beating his range.
2/3) Despite the fact that I really think we are ahead most of the time, I like a c/c on the river if you aren't willing to fire the turn. Unless you have a read that he is kinda fishy, I won't expect him to call with any worse hands. Decent players probably aren't calling with a T, and if he has a Q it's gotta be a better one (or QJ too) because Q9 and worse aren't calling preflop. So I don't think you have any value in a river bet because he is folding all worse pairs as well as his missed draws.

If you c/c, you get value from the times where he decides to bluff a missed draw or try to make thin value bets with something a T, for example. He will definitely have insentive to do this, because our hand is severely under-represented.

It's an awkward spot where you should feel really good about your hand, yet clicking the bet button won't do much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like mid-range pocket pairs are a larger part of his range than missed straight draws and Tx hands are also not as likely. Since pocket pairs and Tx hands have showdown value (and villain doesn't seem good enough to bet these for value) I think we should bet and hope to get looked up by them. We can bet less that 1/2 pot and make sure we get value from something as weak as 88

[craigthedeac]

In my opinion, shpanko, what you mention in that post applies only against a very fish opponent. When Hero raises UTG and continuation bets on this flop 3way, I don't see how MP can call with a pocket pair when there are 2 overs on the board. I just don't see that happening. Especially, and I think this is the most important piece of information , when he calls with action behind him. He is less likely to look up OP on the flop with 88 when he knows there is still someone else in the hand.

And against a fishy player that is willing to make such a flop call, then yes, this is a safe value bet on the river for OP.

[LouisCyphre]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd suggest making a pot-sized bet, say $30.

[/ QUOTE ]

He checked behind on the turn so very likely he has a marginal hand (or is slowplaying a monster). A pot-sized bet will scare away the weak hands like Tx and pocket pairs. If you want to get value in this spot I suggest a bet size in the range of 10-15$.

[Trader_Joe]

I guess we can rule out KQ, AQ or set types of hands since most likely villian would have either re-raised preflop or bet the turn when checked to. So, I would say villan probably had AT, KT, or KJ types of hands and 80% of the time we are good on the river. I would have fired half of the pot (~$16 dollars) and hopefully the second best hand would have called.

I would say 80% of the time we are good here.