Deepstacks $11 overbetting the nuts on the river.

[Nogatsira]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t5690)
MP2 (t6680)
CO (t10170)
Button (t7915)
Hero (t6715)
BB (t2945)
UTG (t5700)
UTG+1 (t6620)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, BB calls t100.

Flop: (t300) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, BB calls t100.

Turn: (t500) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, BB calls t200.

River: (t900) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ? </font>



What play would get the most money? Overbetting, acting as a bluffer with a busted flushdraw? Or just a little bet?

[WarDekar]

I bet about 2/3 pot, that way he'll call a weaker holding that sitll has some showdown value, and it's low enough to where he might even be tempted to push over with some kind of busted hand or even something weird like AT.

Overbetting the pot here doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet about 2/3 pot, that way he'll call a weaker holding that sitll has some showdown value, and it's low enough to where he might even be tempted to push over with some kind of busted hand or even something weird like AT.

Overbetting the pot here doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think overbetting gets called here about zero percent of the time just make a standard value bet.

Edit: BTW, if he has been doing something silly like slowplaying TT, he'll definitally raise your bet anyway then you can shove.

[JesseB_11]

I'd bet more on flop and turn. As played, bet about 600 on river.

[hERESY]

Earlier in the tournament I'd consider overbetting, but not at this point.

[ymu]

With the very weak bets you've been making so far a push might be OK. He only has to call about 25% of the time that he would call a standard value bet to make it +EV.

I'd prefer to bet it properly on the flop and turn though. As soon as you flop the 8 you need to be thinking about how to get his whole stack in by the river if he's flopped enough to call any bets - especially if he's drawing, you need to make him pay more as you won't get any more on the river if he misses.

300 on the flop puts 900 in the pot. Another 650 on the turn puts 2200 in the pot and then you can put him all in on the river easily.

[yNnOs]

If BB is aggressive, would it be ok to check the turn?

[IceMuncher]

[ QUOTE ]
With the very weak bets you've been making so far a push might be OK. He only has to call about 25% of the time that he would call a standard value bet to make it +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt villian calls anywhere near that though.

[jjpregler]

He really has shown no strength this hand. All he was doing was reacting and he never once fought for control of the betting, so he is probably hoping to see a 6th card to make his hand. I don't think a large bet is going to be called here. I think the lower range of a value bet is warranted here, maybe about 450, but not more than 600.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the very weak bets you've been making so far a push might be OK. He only has to call about 25% of the time that he would call a standard value bet to make it +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt villian calls anywhere near that though.

[/ QUOTE ]
I doubt he's calling on the river much anyway - he's shown no sign of having a decent hand, but one draw made it on the river. If he's slowplaying a monster or made his draw he'll call either size bet. If he's got a weak hand he may be more likely to call a ridiculous overbet than a reasonable value bet - he's not very likely to call either.

It's very player dependent, and I don't know what I'd do here because he'd only be left with 2/3 PSB on the river if I'd been playing it - but with bigger effective stacks I might well overbet push the river after betting it strongly all the way if I thought there was a good chance he'd call it.

Is there a reason we've been underbetting so badly all the way? Is he so aggressive we hoped he'd pick up on weakness and raise? Is he so timid we didn't want to scare him off? It'd be better to think about why we managed to get so little in the pot earlier before we start thinking about making a huge overbet on the river to make up for it.