50NL 6m - Flop OESD: Do I have any FE here?

[doppelganger]

I suspect that I am spewing pretty badly in this hand.

Villain is an unknown and I've only been at the table for about 10 minutes. Is there any way he's got a mid-pair or AK often enough to make a push viable here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($55.65)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($49.50)</font>
BB ($25)
UTG ($50)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($84.20)</font>
CO ($43.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $4.50.

Flop: ($13.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $13.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $77.7 (All-In)</font>

[and12006]

I'd probley wait till CO or the button to raise with a5s pf, and to his raise I'd def. fold. As played you don't it looks like he just doing a standard c-bet I might re-raise here but maybe not AI though if you do a psr your pot commited anyways.

[doppelganger]

My thoughts were like this:

1. I agree with you, raising this PF is not something I do automatically, but once in a while I think it's ok to take a shot. Once raised, meh, I'm not sure laying it down is mandatory since I've got position and a good big pot hand if I hit the flop right. But, most of the time yeah, I should've folded PF.

2. Normally when you have a 3-betted pot a standard C-bet is more like 3/4 of the pot, since it's already large. I interpreted his PSB as a "please go away" type of bet that might indicate a vulnerable hand.

3. If I'm going to try and steal this, it has to be right now, and with a push. Calling and waiting for the turn will dissolve whatever fold equity I have, if any. As you said, raising any other amount does the same thing as a push in terms of committing my stack, so why not leave the whole decision up to him?

4. If I assume at least 3 clean pair outs plus my 8 OESD outs, I need 1.4:1 from the pot to make this a breakeven push. I'm not quite there but it's close. He's got 43 in his stack on the flop and the pot is 13, so that's about 1.31:1 odds if I get him all in. So, although I prefer a fold, a call isn't all that terrible.

Basically it comes down to what % of the time I can push him off the pot. And that comes down to hand reading. And that requires a read on the opponent, which I don't have. Hmmm...

[BevillTheDevil]

raising A5s from MP is ok, i like it especially if we have a tight image. But after villians 3bet i think we have to fold...We do have position but A5 sucks after being rr pf, we have to really hit a sick flop to be ahead here. But as played id fold to villian's PSB on flop, On this board the only hand i see villian foldin is AK/AQ and callin with probably most overpairs.

[doppelganger]

Thanks guys.

You're both right of course about the PF call. Ed Miller said that the our biggest leaks are the small mistakes we make regularly, not the big ones we make infrequently.

Routinely calling a 3-bet with a speculative hand like that is a sure recipe for lowering your long-term winrate, so it's a bigger leak in the long run than the push I made on the flop. Actually now that I've analyzed it I think my flop push was pretty much EV neutral.

Thanks for the comments.

-DG