TT relatively early in $330 live tourney, tough spot

[Dan87]

Starting stacks t10000, starting blinds t25/t50, blind level 30 minutes, this is in third blind level which is 75/150.

Ive been playing pretty tight agressive, got in some good spots and my stack is about 16k. 10 handed, I get pocket 10s in MP and raise to 550. There was some confusion the dealer thought I just called by putting in 1 100$ chip and 2 25$ ones, but I put in a $500 and 2 25$, The BB seems to be flustered saying it should just be a call (no clue why its clearly a raise). He then plays with his chips for at least a minute then reraises to 2000, leaving himself with 6000 behind. BB has been kinda loose aggressive, but calls more than he raises. Early on I saw him 3bet pf and show down pocket 4s.

Call, push, or fold?

Is calling to see a flop too weak/not defining your hand, or good to see a flop in position?

Is pushing this early for 45 BBs too much of a gamble?

Is folding too weak-tight?

Against a gambling opponent how much fold equity do we have rasiing for 6k more which would put him allin after his 2k reraise?

[hibees8]

I'd put him on at least AK - the safest thing to do is just call see the flop, see how he watches the flop come. If he is watching the cards closely he probably is on a big ace. If he doesnt seem bothered what comes on flop he probably has a better pair. If the flop comes low cards and you aren't reading him for a big pair check raise him all in. If an Ace or King comes you can fold - no disaster.
Its a safe play but you can stoill bust him - if you push preflop against his range you are no better than pocket twos. Why risk the double up. If scare cards come you can fold leaving 14000 behind - plenty at that blind level. If low cards come and you check he would probably push with AK anyway and you can get the rest in as a bigger favourite.

[Sherman]

Given you reads I'd say it's a shove PF. Some live players may be better at determining what all the controversy means (if it is any tell as what he has).

Calling in position probably doesn't matter much b/c the pot is over 4K and he only has 6K left.

I don't think you have any FE against him PF. But no matter because I am shoving for value.

[Dan87]

So if you put him on almost certainly AK/AQs would you push, or fold with only 550 invested and look for a better spot?

[hibees8]

yeah but why do a race with the guy - like you said he is going to call a push - in which case, if he has AK it is just a race. You have done well to build up to 16000 - you would be better off only risking 2000 and reading the player post flop.

[Sherman]

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So if you put him on almost certainly AK/AQs would you push, or fold with only 550 invested and look for a better spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know 100% for certain your opponent has AQo+, you have exactly 56.21% equity vs. your opponent's 43.79% equity. That is greater than a 10% edge. In practice, I will almost never pass up a 5% edge.

That means that 56% of the time your stack becomes 26K and 43% of the time your stack becomes 6K. Sounds risky right? Why not fold? Here is why:

Let's say you call and lose. Well that sucks but you still have 6K to play with. A few hands later you pick up AA and it holds up All in so you double to 12K.

Now let's say you call and win. A few hands later you pick up AA and get it all in to double up. Now you have 56K!

Now let's say just fold. A few hands later you pick up AA and get it all in to double up. Now you have approx. 31K.

What I am getting at is that when you pass up these edges, you cost yourself later. Passing up small edges means that when big edges arrive, you don't make as much. Your early passes compound themselves as the tournament continues. In this somewhat extreme case, folding when you were a favorite to double up costs you 26K.

Unless circumstances are odd, if my opponent moves all in and turns of two unpaired over cards and I have 22, I call every single time.

There are only a few circumstances to pass this edges. Satelitte bubbles is one. Another is when you are at the FT and a short stack is about to bust, it may be correct to fold. Otherwise, these are almost always calls.

However in your case, you don't know what your opponent has. So let's give him a range. Based on your reads, I am assigning him this range: 22+,AJo+,ATs+.

Against that range you have 56% equity. If your opponent's reaction to the PF controversy was genuine, I would say it is less likely he has bigger pairs here and more likely he has a small pair. If it seemed like an act, I'd say the reverse is true.

Hope that helps.

Sherman

[kutuz_off]

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The BB seems to be flustered saying it should just be a call (no clue why its clearly a raise).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is BB tricky enough to be doing this with QQ+? Barring reads, the answer is usually no. Against AQ/AK you want to call and deny him seeing all 5 cards. Hopefully you can push him out on all-rags board. I think calling is good here, since you want to use position on the flop. If he has an underpair, he doesnt get the set-odds anyway.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The BB seems to be flustered saying it should just be a call (no clue why its clearly a raise).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is BB tricky enough to be doing this with QQ+? Barring reads, the answer is usually no. Against AQ/AK you want to call and deny him seeing all 5 cards. Hopefully you can push him out on all-rags board. I think calling is good here, since you want to use position on the flop. If he has an underpair, he doesnt get the set-odds anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think this is just wrong. Against AK/AQ you don't want to call see undercards and then shove. That is losing value b/c those hands fold then. At that point, you'd rather they still be in there. If he has AK/AQ, who cares if he sees all five cards. You have a 10% edge!

[hibees8]

I still think this is just wrong. Against AK/AQ you don't want to call see undercards and then shove. That is losing value b/c those hands fold then. At that point, you'd rather they still be in there. If he has AK/AQ, who cares if he sees all five cards. You have a 10% edge!

[/ QUOTE ]

he aint necessarily folding on a rags flop. Check and he'll make a continuation bet of at least 2000 anyway.

[Dan87]

Yea but what if you just call knowing that he will push in his last 6k on any flop. I guess technically you would be a 75% favourite against ak after the flop, but the play is designed to get all the money in anyway

the only upside is you can fold if the scare cards come, but what if the flop comes qj2 and he has ak, you could get pushed off.