KK on a sattelite bubble

[ddrstel]

About 5 players are between 2k-3k

20 remaining, 19 seats to 100+9 on ftp.

We've been on the bubble for about 15 minutes.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2258188085: Satellite to $50K Guarantee (16393604), Table 6 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:35:55 ET - 2007/04/21
Seat 1: DCon_Blues (7,350)
Seat 2: curiousgeorge77 (3,905)
Seat 3: ChAtBan (6,015)
Seat 4: blatnoi (2,083)
Seat 6: DudeMang (4,890)
Seat 7: didder (2,250)
Seat 9: MrBurnzDk (13,065)
DCon_Blues antes 50
curiousgeorge77 antes 50
ChAtBan antes 50
blatnoi antes 50
DudeMang antes 50
didder antes 50
MrBurnzDk antes 50
DCon_Blues posts the small blind of 200
curiousgeorge77 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to didder [Kc Ks]
ChAtBan raises to 1,200
blatnoi folds
DudeMang folds
didder ...?

[Sherman]

Reads on raiser?

Against 22+, A2o+, and A2s+, you are 75% to win.

Do you think you are better than 75% to get a seat if you fold? Anyhow, some analysis like this is the answer to your question.

[ddrstel]

seems to have an ok idea for how to play the bubble for sats, not great though.

[Cleverbeans]

Jam - you need the chips.

[Willd]

I'm not exactly an expert on satellites (or normal MTTs for that matter) but since this isn't a very high buy in sat play in general is going to be very sub-optimal and so this seems like a fold to me.

With 5 players between 2k and 3k there will almost certainly be at least 2 or 3 all ins before you get really desperate and, assuming they are coinflips, the chance of someone being knocked out in one of those is greater than the 72% chance you have of winning this hand using shermn's range (which seems a bit wide to me anyway).

[mrcfkane]

you are essentially tied with the SS, and the next guy has 4 more bb than you do. Against almost any villians range you are a BIG favorite. you got to shove.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
you are essentially tied with the SS, and the next guy has 4 more bb than you do. Against almost any villians range you are a BIG favorite. you got to shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to consider that there is another table too and that Hero doesn't have to win another single chip to win a seat. He just has to not lose all his chips. That is an exteremely important consideration here.

[hibees8]

I'd fold - Chataban doesn't need to play a hand he may even have aces - with 6000 chips and coasting thru and a bigger stack behind him it is a good chance.

[HappyOD]

It seems to me that Chatban is over 90% to get a seat if he doesn't play another hand. There is no obvious reason for him to raise from UTG with any hand. So, I have to believe it's one of two ranges. 1st range: ATC, and he likes betting the bubble, and being a bully, because he believes no one will call. He plans to fold to any re-raise from a medium to big stack, but he may call you. 2nd range: AA,and he can't bring himself to lay it down.

It seems strange to fold here, but I think the odds of getting a seat are better if you lay them down.

[Willd]

Yeah, Chatban's raise here is just plain bad, whatever he is holding. If he doesn't play another hand he is 99% to get a seat and adding any chips doesn't make any real difference to his chances, whereas losing chips could make a big difference.

The fact that he was raising here was partly what made me think a fold is correct since if he is raising here it is likely that others will also be playing poorly and as such it seems more likely that someone else will be knocked out before you are forced in by the blinds than it is you will win this hand.