Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?

[dedor]

OMG!!!

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
you guys wanna know why none of the big names post anymore? this abortion (which I didn't actually read before posting because I just know the first post is moronic) is 75 posts and nothing else on the first page is over 30. gg.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I tried to save this post, but only Funki even made an effort to think about it. But I suppose it is hard to save a thread when everyone just says, "I didn't even read all the responses." gg.

[Poisoned]

theres no reason to think about it, its just bad...

[yNnOs]

If I'm in this spot, definitely doing the dance that guy did in that FT commercial. Rip my shirt open, throw the chips in the air and let it rain down.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
theres no reason to think about it, its just bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you didn't read my question either.

Maybe I'll just make a new thread for it. We all know the OP is bad. But I tried to change the question to something that actually requires some thought.

Same scenario as OP but with a few assumptions.

1. You opponent will not go all in every hand.
2. The blinds never increase.
3. You are better than your opponent.

Now, same scenario. You are 82% to win PF. However, with a little thought, you can realize that theoretically, there is some real number of BBs that would make calling -$EV.

For example, if there were enough BBs that you knew you could player 1,000,000 hands, it is very likely that calling with AA is -$EV. Because over 1,000,000 hands you might be better than an 82% favorite. I simply asked how many hands/BBs deep would you think you needed to be to be greater than an 82% favorite to win?

[wpr101]

OMG, THIS IS SUCH AN INTERESTING QUESTION!!

[Retribution1824]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who would consider folding AA here doesn't have a big enough skill edge to warrant folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh /endthread

[yNnOs]

Thats a much better question shermn, one that actually makes sense to think about. I think your right that there must be some number where your better than 82% favorite, but shudder to think how big that could be. I don't think you can come up with a number though, in any reliable sense.

Your dealing with several non-linear factors going to work on each other. Certainly deterministic given a set of parameters, but unpredictable as things play out. So IMHO the number of BB's and hands (for that to be true) would be changing constantly as the game progresses. And thats assuming your edge remains constant.

So as the BB's of the stacks change, the number of hands changes. And as you play more hands, the number of BB's for that to be true is also changing. So essentially if you were to figure out it took 1,000,000 hands with a stack of 200BB's, after the first 500,000 hands things might have changed so that it now takes only another 100,000 hands to maintain that 82%. Which means it really only took 600,000 from where you initially started. I don't think you can know at any one point the number.

Needless to say, the numbers (BB and hands) has to be relatively large. I also dont think there's one set x BB's, and x hands thats the one answer; there are probably lots of combinations. I hope I made some sense and didn't cause anyone to reach for a gun. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CalledDownLight]

I think I slowroll him here.

[ QUOTE ]
Same scenario as OP but with a few assumptions.

1. You opponent will not go all in every hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

This assumption might be flawed. Don't we need to know that he will not go in any hand? (Until he gets below a certain chip threshhold obviously).