MLB 4/20-4/22 Picks YTD 18-13 +5.745 Units

[ctompkin]

Picks for 4/20

WASH +140 1 unit to win 1.4
Phils +118 1 unit to win 1.18
DBacks +104 1 unit to win 1.04
PIT +170 1 unit to win 1.70

I really like what I see here, these all seem to be either wrong team favored, or closer to a coin flip in the case of PIT and WASH than what the prices reflect. Sorry don't have time for reasoning tonight, back on it tomorrow.

[stickneymarc]

They might be if they were playing at home on the road some become dogs.

[stickneymarc]

I did put them on a parlay though.

[ctompkin]

[ QUOTE ]
Picks for 4/20

WASH +140 1 unit to win 1.4 <font color="green"> W +1.4 units </font>
Phils +118 1 unit to win 1.18 <font color="red"> L -1 unit </font>
DBacks +104 1 unit to win 1.04 <font color="red"> L -1 unit </font>
PIT +170 1 unit to win 1.70 <font color="red"> L -1 unit </font>



[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="red"> WTD 1-3 -1.6 units </font>
<font color="green">YTD 19-16 +4.145 units </font>

A frustrating loss with the Phils' bullpen blowing it, cost me the difference between a positive night and a negative night unit wise.

[ctompkin]

Picks for 4/21

Phils -130 1.3 units to win 1
Cards +120 1 unit to win 1.2
Dbacks +139 1 unit to win 1.39
PITT +137 1 unit to win 1.37

Phils -130
The Phils have Cole Hamels on the mound today, and he is legit. He should be able to stay in the game long enough to give the Phils strong offense a chance to put enough runs on the board to make their crappy bullpen a non-factor in this game.

Cards +120
Anthony Reyes is not getting enough love here. He is better than the numbers from the start of this season would indicate. Plus, sorry Cubs fans, Jason Marquis is a donk.

DBacks +139 (5dimes)
This more a fade on Barry Zito than anything else. People still have the memory of how good he was in their mind, rather than how he is just an above average pitcher these days. In 2002-2003 opponents OBP was below .300 against Zito, he hasn't been there since, and probably won't be again. But the betting public still loves to see the name Zito on the card. Plus the DBacks are the better team to begin with.

PITT +137 (5dimes)
I have this one closer to a coin flip than +137, playing the odds.

[ctompkin]

[ QUOTE ]
Picks for 4/21

Phils -130 1.3 units to win 1 <font color="green"> W +1 unit </font>
Cards +120 1 unit to win 1.2 <font color="red"> L -1 unit </font>
Dbacks +139 1 unit to win 1.39 <font color="red"> L -1 unit </font>
PITT +137 1 unit to win 1.37 <font color="red"> L -1 unit </font>

Phils -130
The Phils have Cole Hamels on the mound today, and he is legit. He should be able to stay in the game long enough to give the Phils strong offense a chance to put enough runs on the board to make their crappy bullpen a non-factor in this game.

Cards +120
Anthony Reyes is not getting enough love here. He is better than the numbers from the start of this season would indicate. Plus, sorry Cubs fans, Jason Marquis is a donk.

DBacks +139 (5dimes)
This more a fade on Barry Zito than anything else. People still have the memory of how good he was in their mind, rather than how he is just an above average pitcher these days. In 2002-2003 opponents OBP was below .300 against Zito, he hasn't been there since, and probably won't be again. But the betting public still loves to see the name Zito on the card. Plus the DBacks are the better team to begin with.

PITT +137 (5dimes)
I have this one closer to a coin flip than +137, playing the odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Barry Zito and Jason Marquis; I'll just eat my hat now. Plus a frustrating extra inning loss from Pittsburgh.

Baseball tonight really flamed it up too, when they spent a segment talking about how good Barry Zito was last night. This ought to make him really overpriced his next time out.

Ugly weekend thus far, variance (a mean reversion that was well in order) is putting the brakes on what was a ripping start.

<font color="red"> WTD 2-6 -3.6 units </font>
<font color="green"> YTD 20-19 +2.145 units </font>

[ctompkin]

4/22 Picks

Phils +103 2 units to win 2.06
Arizona +185 2 units to win 3.7 (5dimes)
Pitt +120 1 unit to win 1.2

The Phils have the better offense and the better pitcher on the mound. Getting odds with this situation is always nice.

Arizona should never be this big of a dog to SF, regardless of pitching matchup.

Pittsburgh is another coin flip against LA, taking the odds.

[ctompkin]

[ QUOTE ]
4/22 Picks

Phils +103 2 units to win 2.06 <font color="green"> W +2.06 units </font>
Arizona +185 2 units to win 3.7 (5dimes) <font color="red">L - 2 units </font>
Pitt +120 1 unit to win 1.2 <font color="green"> W +1.2 units </font>


[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="red"> WTD 4-7 -2.34 units </font>
<font color="green"> YTD 22-20 +2.405 units </font>